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So far this year joining us now through tolls for these markets on the economy is headed.
We'll be talking with and welcome Karl Ulrich about a senior US economist for Deutsche Bank securities today -- but it.
-- it's been one -- here I mean we've got -- people walking around with long faces and all parts of the country because they're unemployed.
The economy is contracting and they just don't understand how nice it is to be on Wall Street.
-- -- It's chilly down on Wall Street -- Lou I I assure you.
But we are seeing some positive signs in the economy so yes.
The fourth quarter did look so great.
When we look at that top level GDP number.
But when we look beneath the surface we see some important undercurrents those those green shoots up consumer spending and are delighted -- term come back up a consumer spending -- picking up.
Business investment which had been contracting in Q3.
Now it's picking up again the housing markets picking up the domestic economy looks decent -- it needs time to run.
-- that unemployment rate down but it increasingly looks like we're building some moment.
-- -- You know I really am not a -- a follow visual me and I and I'm delighted to see your optimism and Andy here that bright outlook about.
I'm concerned the consumers getting hit with taxes from Obama -- getting hit with the fiscal -- -- -- watching an economy that is being strong -- by regulation.
And by -- and pay a -- can sometimes seemingly intentionally.
That is trying everything a key and to drive this economy into the ground.
And I'm -- you say all of this and I think wait a minute we've got to be talking about the same external reality are we not.
Leave -- leave -- -- believe the equity markets out of it right we are but let's look at what consumers they're doing.
Have the same question if you.
How do we have this massive tax increase on the economy -- Social Security tax increase alone.
It's -- about a 130 billion dollars on households it there on the upper income tax increases that came through during the fiscal cliff.
That pushes that up towards 200 billion dollars if this massive tax increase in the economy consumer sentiment is increasing.
Vehicle sales are increasing retail sales still increased at an all in context.
We should point out and I think it's important that those those taxes -- only begun to be felt.
They haven't had true.
And significant impact -- Well with certainly we haven't felt the lot the -- full of the the full measure but it's very surprising that we could make it through late December and January.
And not see immediately and return on in the month among US households.
-- it is is there any part of your economists mine that would be suspicious that we might see that impact.
Well for instance as you mentioned the Wal-Mart sales anecdotes that they have a lousy start to February.
That that would be one place we would start to see some of that impact but I'm surprised we didn't see it in January so it'll be really telling.
Actually on March 1 we get that that the more complete picture of personal income and spending and -- -- What happened in January and what happens if we add on to this sequester.
That trillion dollar experiment in self coercion -- these.
These fine upstanding folks engaged.
Well that that that touches an important point which the political leadership there certainly are some issues here.
What I looked at this that all -- -- Balladur ability fact that I want that we are always debate.
-- that this -- quest there I think is going to happen now.
And while it's being built with something that's worth.
Roughly 85 billion dollars it's a lot smaller than the fiscal -- first the ball and secondly.
Out what impacts us this year is really only about half of that about 42 billion dollars so yes it's negative for the economy but we are a sixteen trillion dollar economy so.
That is really relatively small over the next -- -- of the united track record turnout it's it's barely it's stagnant it's not contracting -- car it is delightful through our heavier insure your optimism in my because all are hoping that -- right Karl -- adopted in the year.
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