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Humphries: Mini-Bubble in Housing Market

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    Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist, gives his outlook on the housing recovery in 2013.

  • Duration 3:28
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Year over year zillow chief economist Stan Humphries expects the housing recovery to continue.

But not without a few bumps in the road -- is here with his predictions.

-- market we'll -- values continue to rise and which ones won't.

CM thanks so much for coming on the show let's start with the worst markets for 2013 'cause I really want to drill down on some of these details and by that you mean.

The places where you don't expect to see the biggest jump.

Over the next year they might be good opportunities for buyers right.

That's right yes some of the markets that are gonna move slowest over the next year.

Our markets.

Largely in the midwest and the northeast of -- Cincinnati Cleveland.

In New York outside of the Five Boroughs if you're in the Five -- you may think -- things are quite a bit different than they are -- to get out of Five Boroughs but.

-- New Jersey market served up and moving slower.

The Atlanta Chicago markets are moving slower as well so -- -- prices are gonna appreciate much less in those markets.

Right -- -- and the reason why we highlight those ads that we call on the worst price appreciation markets over the next year but -- present good opportunities because they're probably sitting at or near a bottom right now.

Maybe sellers are more motivated and it's a good time to get an.

The best price appreciation markets right now that -- also California where we were just look at with Robert correct.

Near the best price appreciation we're seeing right now are they we expect to see between thirteen is coming in markets that have via hardest we were hardest hit during the housing downturn.

So there think -- -- Phoenix Vegas San Francisco San Jose a lot of Southern California San Diego and LA Riverside California.

Those markets we're also is midway down from where they were five years ago and -- now rebounding strongly -- -- Phoenix were seeing home values rise 20% year over year.

I think you know when my favorites is is Detroit which it's been an enormously hard -- market.

Not only had a housing recession but really half of its population down from where it was fifteen years ago -- very hard -- market.

But we expected to be up -- pretty strongly next year and it's up almost double digit this year.

Yeah I mean when you look at the numbers on the screen 88 makes me very nervous in those particular markets because it feels like what it looked like.

Before the -- -- mean.

Do you want to get involved at a market like Los Angeles raising prices go up 7% that's we are predicting Sacramento 11%.

Riverside 12% I mean that sounds a little dangerous.

There's no doubt that that we're seeing you know almost a mini bubble again in these markets it's being.

Created because of large negative equity -- markets because somebody's -- so much there's a lot of negative equity in a negative equities actually constraining the supply for sale homes people are underwater so they can't -- -- -- up for sale so as demand returns we -- international buyers come back into the market we -- retirees and second home buyers come back.

Did they can't they're the people who wanna sell their homes to these new entrants -- are underwater and that's creating some of price spikes in and is not sustainable and -- you know being.

Now that's a great point -- and what should people expect real quick before -- ran out of time going forward what's a reasonable price sex at appreciation expectation.

Well over the long term housing returns about 3% a year so that's what we're gonna see in most these markets so.

-- Phoenix we expect what's the point 2% year over year and next year -- believes going to be probably half that and it's gonna begin to trend down to more normal levels so people should not expect.

It's been a roller coaster ride for consumers you know leadoff double digit been down double digit.

Now back up double digit they should expect the consolation to start to moderate.

And for things to trend back down more than three to 5% per year range Ari thanks so much -- -- -- get information.

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