Fox Business
Expand
Browse All Video
Watch Live

You're watching...

As Goes January, So Goes the Year?

Details

  • Description

    S&P Capital IQ chief investment strategist Sam Stovall gives his outlook for the markets.

  • Duration 3:13
  • Date

Clips

Also in this playlist...

Markets Now

Auto-advance: ON

Auto-advance
View All

Transcript

This transcript is automatically generated

Talk first guest right now to call it is Sam so evolved from Standard and Poor's and Sam says what you're starts off when you have January gains -- the stock market you can pretty much bet.

On the market for the rest of the year but the problem -- last time he was on he said the first year of a second term for.

A second term president that's bad for the markets -- hope we need G San today to pick.

A cliche -- pick an adage which is it's which would you like pack up why they're both work.

They both work actually.

I think the operative word is not the the first -- president's term in -- is -- It's just not as good as years 23 and four historically historically and also the the January barometer first introduced.

By the stock trader's almanac says as goes January so goes the year.

Whenever the market has been up in January is continued to rise about 11%.

In the remaining eleven months of the year and up 84% of the time since World War II I think all of this does bring up a larger and more serious point -- a hard time about the -- the outages that are used but -- were at.

Or closest Nicole -- -- all time highs how do you tell the difference to kind of borrow.

-- they -- Nate Silver -- between.

Signalling no it's there's so much noise out there and statistics and market data where.

You say all just because the AFC are at a C won the Super Bowl the market's gonna do this not that both types of things are all over the place.

So which ones do you listen to.

Well first off the the Super Bowl theory popularized by my father Robert Stovall right that's.

Correlation without causation there's no reason yeah that's what amassing an -- how -- you connect with the dot -- that and what types of questions to ask yourself.

When you hear something happens said well is that because you can write what replica what's the correlation point I think what I first off say is that history is a great -- it's never gospel.

Second what I say is that you know you have to over.

Overlay history with the current outlook for the economy -- fundamentals technicals because while history might frequently -- sometimes -- forgets the words so you get a good idea from history.

And then you say but is it likely to work this time or not but let's apply them exit.

Present day as we look at the major indexes -- flash chemistry institute of the such talk and mentioned the Dow -- around fourteen.

Fast and so apply it to the present day with the question that everybody seems to be asking us is global markets went up so much I'm not and it did I miss it.

I don't wanna get involved -- -- get hurt again so what what how do you apply.

These lessons in -- -- historical patterns to the present day.

I think so many people have been waiting for a meaningful pullback since October of 2006 and eleven -- they have not gotten into this rally.

And basically they've been left behind -- they should get it now that -- -- Chasing -- I think is the wrong word right now we're looking at valuations that are trading at.

A fifteen.

Percent discount to the average since 2000 so over this -- -- secular bear market.

We're still looking at valuation is cheap bad really cheap the market looks pretty did the stock market vs -- what exactly and also 141000 on the Dow.

It's a psychological level -- like a rusty door needs several attempt before it's broken open.

When you stood up to our attempts at questioning if there's pretty well Sam good to see if they cannot -- Sam -- ticket.

Load More