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Jobs Report: Good or Bad?

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    RBS senior economist Michelle Girard weighs in on January unemployment numbers.

  • Duration 3:54
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Much it was jobs -- became a little below expectations for jobs added also the unemployment rate ticked higher.

To seven point 9%.

-- -- take a look at the U six number as well that number includes people who need more work in order to pay their bills that they don't have a job and -- -- altogether and you get 22 point seven million people.

That is flat from December.

The markets like the report -- because it means that the Fed will keep interest rates low.

This recovery in there anywhere Michelle Girard.

Is fabulous and joins us today she's RBS senior economist say it's coming on the show I like what to have gotten jobs stay obviously.

-- What do you think this report.

Well you know like you said there was a little bit light that this -- -- day -- we have all sorts of revisions to the prior day that.

And and when you look at those actually give the payroll numbers were better in 2012 than they thought -- at least stronger.

In the fourth or -- payroll growth averaged over 200000 a month so it's a good it's a great story.

But it it's a story I think that think just the labor market is continuing to improve albeit more gradually than we'd like to see because that declining -- a -- which we did not get this month.

Is is still frustrating really slow.

You -- you -- The numbers I mean say for example we wanted to get back to 6% we would -- to -- like 363 jobs every single month.

For our the next three year prison in order to get back -- -- 5%.

In that it -- that seems like an insurmountable number can imagine if we print it 363000.

Jobs.

That's exactly right I mean much for get that you not -- fairly optimistic I guess I don't have the growth accelerating terribly much about trend in the next couple of years but not the last.

-- and I don't see the -- -- hitting 6% until 2016.

And late 1016.

At bats out.

I do you think this is -- -- this is the issue we still have.

A labor market is -- set that is slowly slowly recovering.

All of all of the law says that it's it's still a you know we're still climbing back on that we saw during the downturn -- so I -- average.

-- -- to the reason why we're seeing the markets really rejoice because you said you don't think we're gonna hit 6% for years.

The Fed has said that they're gonna leave interest rates low targeting unemployment until it gets about levels I mean a lot of people -- -- me today why as the market so happy at the end of -- -- -- so bad.

Because the Fed's gonna keep interest rates low and that forces everyone into stocks right.

Right like.

Doesn't report for everybody I mean -- signs that the economy is holding yet and I think.

But when you look at the strength in the fourth quarter for all complaints that -- I think we're only we're making about how -- -- was closet and not the higher.

They weren't hiring is showing resilience in the face of the mess going on Washington so I play and that's good news and that could be positive for stocks but that.

Even -- any other -- that there's nothing in this report.

That would suggest that that is good to be changing its -- any time zone so we are gonna continue to get more buying of treasury securities that liquidity will.

Continue to benefit I think the equity markets and so even on -- -- yeah you are you getting a positive story I.

Surprises -- -- -- vision for November December given that we just got that GDP data that showed that the economy contracted in December.

Yet if you put together the upward revisions it was an extra 127000.

Jobs that we didn't -- But you're exactly right that's -- About that GDP number that was cut -- -- dip below the surface as many people pointed out -- actually more strength of the consumer was quite strong I mean.

It was it was strong fourth quarter.

-- it's been since the beginning of 2012.

And I think that these strong employment numbers and he's -- incoming numbers kind of all do you fit together the drag that gave us that weak GDP number came from defense spending is everybody has talked about and a -- heart out and inventories are right Michelle -- thanks so much always -- -- -- -- -- share had a great day that I.

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