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Case-Shiller Index co-author Robert Shiller give his outlook for housing and the economy.
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-- housing numbers out this morning if you look at what the case Shiller.
I report indicated -- gotta say this is pretty good right US single family home prices continuing decline in November 10 month in a row.
Of increases so we bring in Robert Shiller -- is the professor at Yale musical what -- of that report to.
Tell us to come down maybe a little bit or to tell us that we finally turn the corner and housing.
As reflected in prices is looking pretty good what he say professor Shiller.
Well of course runs its stake com how -- -- -- there isn't that exciting.
We we had a huge exciting bubble.
You know and that ended in 2006 in -- -- president following mostly since then.
So maybe we're back to some increases.
But I don't think that is sign of anything exciting that now another boom like we saw then.
Why not because some people have in all seriousness started to.
Sound much more optimistic.
Than they were maybe six months ago -- number people -- housing very closely.
But I've been reading some your recent comments and in Europe.
You're not and we joke around with you being pessimistic all the time in which are not by the way you -- you go back years ago you weren't.
But you're you're cautious still you're saying be careful 2009 was.
And -- head fake and we may be going through that again so why are in or why isn't this the big rebound that we've been waiting for.
But there is it I think maybe in Phoenix her Canadians -- in Cisco.
But what was really unusual about the recent boom was that.
It was nationwide that was very unusual.
And one thing we have to guard ourselves against is expecting recent history could just repeat itself.
Big housing -- ever area that's the last really big housing boom that we.
Have seen in this country before that 2000 you know that from Frankfurt century ago.
Was in the 1940s.
I mean these go.
National boom that does not to be expected.
So right yeah I think home prices could go up you know the CME futures market is predicting something like -- little less than 2% a year in real.
Inflation -- home price increases.
That's plausible but it's not to get excited about because the stock.
Market and back against his stock market prediction with you but just to pointed out -- -- were up close to 141000 on the Dow and up another fifty points today despite the fact.
As we talked about on this.
Show a few minutes ago that the consumer confidence figures are not all that encouraging people look at smaller paychecks coming in at the beginning of the year because payroll taxes went up.
Or went back to what they were I guess and said well.
Maybe I'm not as confident as I was so what's your overall economic outlook if -- had to articulate noted that the problem.
As we've done through the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
And history shows.
That prices like that leave lasting scars from you know you -- like the flu.
He feel like I'm -- ready to go back to work and then weeks later in our -- off you know quite right.
That's the way these financial -- impressions are.
And who -- were were lucky that it wasn't worse.
But the idea that we're gonna be off to the races again this doesn't sound right.
There were fears as you know out from that this is.
2013 the worst of it was September 2008 and worst of the stock market this march of 09 so.
We're fears out I mean is -- a few more years you're talking about what he referring to when you.
Reflect now back -- past crisis and and you know compared to this time around.
Whether -- critical thing is that there's no objective way to forecast depends on people's attitude you know the homeownership rate has been -- And there's a recent paper.
-- -- Gabrielle.
Stuart Gabriel that show is that the homeownership greatest decline has not explained by.
Demographic or economic factors so it seems like people are turning away from -- -- -- To some extent and I think that's because they were burned in this crisis in -- -- Not coming back to have I think another generation before we get the real enthusiasm back.
-- -- Generation Y.
-- Robert Shiller has always.
Your insides are appreciated and come back anytime we'll talk again soon okay thanks.
Her version Bob -- from Yale -- Shiller in in case Shiller talking about what may be so long road ahead force on the economy.
