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Glenmede director of investment strategy Jason Pride on his outlook for the economy and investor confidence.
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Bell rings the call thank you very much economic data coming out today jobless claims at their lowest point since 2008.
But my next guest has what it comes to the economy many big risks are still out there one of -- Washington Jason pride let me director back -- But joins me now you're really are looking ahead of the debt ceiling and saying that another policy error could be a big market hit what do you mean by.
Let's -- we we just look at and think we're -- we're still in the deleveraging scenario.
It's not over.
Debt levels are still high in the US in many developed economies we start to bring those down to truly create a nice fundamental situation.
That provides a lot of opportunities.
For policy makers to make mistakes -- messed things up.
We have.
Now we may do we have a debt ceiling extension it's already put on the table.
But we start -- sequester coming we still have.
The that you be the extension of the budgets for the coming year in Europe we still have Spain refinancing 20% of their GDP.
In -- hired they had to issue this year there are more than enough opportunities for for this to give you -- that's not our base case.
Just -- and -- -- are your residency issue here it's really you're talking about the United States and there were our own worst enemy at this point and I wanna pick up on something here that.
If we get these jobless claims and coming in today five -- nice to see but still if unemployment does -- that seven percentile range.
For 2013.
And you're saying that the debt to -- its gonna take about half a percent -- GDP may -- percent that tells me bad economy no jobs.
You'll even have an economic recovery and they still have their jobs mean what does that the market yeah we're not magic.
We're not necessarily in the bad economy can't we think we're an okay economy not great because we're having to face that half a percent to percent headwind from the out.
The fiscal austerity that's coming through the -- -- but jobless the job situation is improving gradually small housing is a nice tail wind that has been a headwind for multiple years.
The economies are okay shape.
But it's not something that we can jump up and get -- get really excited that were off to the races at this point in time.
We still have a lot of work to do and there's a lot of chances to -- cares so we're advising people to be.
Cautiously optimistic in your portfolio positioning quite so much risk what's -- select target before it electricity target at the end of the -- -- We don't make it S&P targets on on a one year basis we -- -- that -- over the next couple of years we're thinking six to 7% annual gains in the S and case.
That's that's -- that would be okay at this point considering what we're facing in the next couple of months anyway Jason pride.
Jason -- very much.
