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Housing Recovery Building Momentum?

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    John Burns Real Estate Consulting CEO John Burns on the outlook for the housing market.

  • Duration 3:31
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What -- more housing -- sales of existing homes in December fell by 1% to an annual rate of four point nine million units that is short of expectations.

But -- guess is not disappointed.

He says there is a positive housing friend.

Driving the recovery joining us now John Burns CEO -- -- Real estate consulting and John thank you for joining us so what is this headline it's being largely ignored that -- very.

Excited about.

-- -- -- What's driving it down -- that number of distressed transactions as falling pretty rapidly in fact we think we're in a five year job 50% decline of distressed transactions but normal buyers are coming back we think between.

2010 and 2016 we're gonna see that grow about 80%.

Maybe it was kind of flash in December with all the fiscal cliff issues going on the -- in the midst of a real recovery here there's no doubt -- Look -- limit -- mentioned that inventory was really tight.

You know restrictive mortgage.

Underwriting is still out there as well -- I mean it's not -- -- be a walk in the park by any stretch.

You know it's a lot easier walk in the park than it was a year ago and it's it's not this hard to get a mortgage is a lot of people think it is.

The Q admirals finally got released earlier this month that's spurring a lot of clarity -- the banks.

Mean if you're under ride -- -- -- you -- -- -- and asked 50% of your income go to work your mortgage -- the ridiculous things that used to be gone on.

You can get a mortgage is the paperwork sold out of addict.

Job we know that the inventories are tight right now but -- -- changes more homeowners who have not put their homes on the market because they're obviously gonna get.

You know not as much as they well maybe not as much as they pay for -- But as they say these prices rise they'll be more encouraged to bring them home until the market is that a trend you expect to see.

-- and it is a trend that we're seeing so.

Elizabeth mentioned there's ten point four million mortgages underwater a year ago that number was twelve so we got a million and a half more people are so.

That a year ago who can sell their home and and make a profit on it.

And I don't know who's I know a lot of economists are saying about 3% home price appreciation outlook I'm far more optimistic -- that -- from.

Mortgage cost income ratio this is near the cheapest time in the last thirty years the economy's on the mend there's four point four months of supply on the market which is really low.

We're my my consulting staff -- on the market is hearing stories of bidding wars.

Not that home prices are going up 3% in your debt on its much more stronger in the west than it is in the.

That's -- plans -- bifurcated still right because.

As -- -- out earlier the west got hit -- harder then we did here on the east I guess Miami not included.

And we're seeing those turnaround really quickly what -- areas like new York New Jersey Connecticut that we're still seeing bond prices in are areas.

Yeah in -- differentiated a different way it's the judicial foreclosure states for the nonjudicial for coalition states -- California and Arizona they foreclosed on you -- Actually for three years -- -- -- coming back as a buyer.

In new York and New Jersey and Florida you're still live for free.

And weren't we're we're seeing high months of supply in those markets as a lot of homes on the market in the east and is very few homes on the market on the west.

On top of all that that is the big distressed investors have been.

Shopping on the west and now they're moving in Atlanta and the Carolina as you mentioned Minneapolis.

Right where we're seeing them now and they're gonna drive the recovery there to.

It's nice to see that the market is clearly off to me now is stunning that recovery -- guns I thank you so much John for joining us appreciate it.

My pleasure.

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