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Global Financial CIO Chris Bertelsen and Janney Capital Markets Technical Research Director Dan Wantrobski on investing strategies in this market envi...
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But a couple of minutes let's bring in our market panel first we have Chris Bertelsmann and damn what -- They join us now didn't let me go to you first because we've been hitting on this theme that may be.
We are setting up for a little bit of a draw down of of these gains these spectacular gains we've had.
Since the first of the year do you think that a draw down is coming and might you hold your cash until then.
Yeah I mean that this certainly draw down is coming needed -- -- -- question as to what extent.
You know momentum in the markets as we push to new highs on the S&P 500 again.
Hitting that 1475.
Print momentum has started to wane a little bit I think the bulls are getting tired so.
You know this could set up for a bout of profit taking.
Underneath the surface we're also seeing rotation so a lot of the names and a lot of the sectors that worked in 2012.
They may be susceptible and vulnerable to a bit more profit taking -- wanna be careful there.
What could especially out of -- flight which sectors I mean financials obviously did very -- very well in 2012 would they -- ones that are just a little bits assessed susceptible to this.
-- -- you know look at it in the would be across the board in my opinion but that the most vulnerable group would probably be the consumer and the consumer was the big story of 2012.
It turned into a very crowded trade.
And -- other sectors did well they were laggards behind that space and we would actually looked -- that.
As a source of funds and and quite frankly we think we institutional community is rotating those funds right now.
Continue groups these groups are gonna -- new leadership this would include.
Early cyclicals materials industrials that would include the banks -- financials.
I think at some point it's gonna include technology -- well so what we're gonna do is in trying to gauge what the correction is gonna be how how it intends going to be.
But we're gonna get our shopping lists ready for those -- -- are going to be looked and we'll military buyers on weakness -- -- actually have some specific stock picks we'll get to a just a second but Chris.
Again the theme we've had a great start to 2013.
But you say -- may there's not going to be a big pull -- but it is going to be a slow grind -- for a while now.
Absolutely I think that data that drag on the fiscal cliff -- probably about 1% of GNP.
And that -- -- -- move through the python in the first a couple of quarters and then I think you'll see.
And are much better third quarter and fourth quarter with growth approaching.
Somewhere around 2% for G and K let's look for what do you look right now mean that as as he wait for the so roughly and it took the -- is moving through the python's body to -- to the end sound their but what what do you what what would you be investing in as that process continues.
Well I think the market make something cheap every day and nobody's made any money fight panic -- and -- last quarter they panicked out of Morgan Stanley and look at -- a hero today same thing is true with Intel.
You know -- they write off though -- -- complex is being dead but anybody who examines when to LB on the surface so we'll see that.
There are powerful firm there metrics achieved there cheaper than.
PDI -- Texas Instruments are anything out there.
And who -- I can see apple using the -- supplier and you're being you know you're getting a value right now.
So tell us hello and that's the time -- my.
Dan I've noticed that sort of a pattern in your picks you have new core which is a steel products maker you also have.
Commercial Metals.
Why -- you putting these cities commercial metal manufacturers.
In now is to -- Yeah -- -- -- -- anything that's levered to construction anything that's levered to infrastructure build out here in the US perhaps multifamily.
Construction we think that is going to be a new leadership sector I mean.
We all know homebuilders have done very well -- specifically in 2012.
But we think that's a thing that's actually gonna gain traction when you look at a lot of these early cyclicals -- early materials plays.
They are all coming off huge huge accumulation accumulation bases.
What that tells me is that quietly you know behind the scenes.
People have been scooping the stock's up before you know the crowd before the press is -- real.
Quick though they -- before before we go on to some of -- is picks.
There is now the time to buy or would you wait for this pull back.
And -- there is a matter of timing.
-- -- to be honest I'd I'd probably wait I personally think we're in the window for a correction.
Second -- -- -- the first second week of February so I'd be very careful coming into next week especially if the S&P breaks below 1470.
Maybe hold keep a little powder dry animal coming in the next few weeks okay.
From India and and quickly Chris is we're gonna put up your some of your other stock picks elected some of the financial -- but if there -- one mistake you feel that investors are about to make.
And you would want to warn them off that what would it be.
Well I think IE agree with the other guest on consumer discretionary.
I would be very careful about retail stocks in here.
Retail because the consumer maybe is just a little bit of -- for yeah.
Well lap with a 1% -- that 1% increase.
-- I mean 2% increase in taxes and payroll is like a dollar increase in gasoline so.
They're gonna have to testify to from somewhere.
I love your analogies daily drops K thank you very much and Chris Bertelsmann gentlemen have a great weekend and appreciate him coming yet.
Thank you.
