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Sam Stovall, S&P Capital IQ chief equity strategist, gives his market outlook for 2013 and talks S&P’s historic highs in 2000 and 2007.
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Markets certainly keeping an eye on shares -- apple we're gonna be doing that today but take a look at the S&P start -- air -- with a big bank bridging the five year high.
But where is the S&P -- a lot of debate right now in the markets about what's next S&P capital IQ Sam Stovall says.
We're gonna be hitting 16100.
-- 16100.
You don't what lessen your -- or loss couple appearances -- -- on -- saying that that we elitist or the president usually.
That that first year after an election is negative and I know that you study history study the charts.
Why Fisher all the study changing -- tune about the dynamics of the market.
Well let me first say that history I think it's a great -- and I usually start off with history -- -- get an idea as to what might happen going forward.
Our investment policy committee has a year end 2013.
Target of 1550.
On the S and piece about an eight and a half percent price appreciation.
That said obviously we just hit a five year high in the S&P 500 -- Yet we're still under water from a a bear market perspective being below the October.
Ninth of 2007 hi so what to -- was that went back to 1929 instead.
What have we had these similar situations.
And what happened to the market twelve months later.
Not a lot of observations.
Only four of them.
And as a result you have to take the numbers with a very big grain of salt but it said about eleven and a half percent gain twelve months out.
OK so so you're more bullish tone is based on kind of the numbers that you're seeing the technical history but at the same time.
There are a lot of unknowns mean again we've got the -- that we debate coming up party worried about what that's gonna -- -- confidence.
You've also got this change in paychecks across the country there's worries that consumer spending is gonna drastically pullback.
Because the payroll tax holiday over -- out -- six point 2%.
All of that could be -- negative and company forecast which could still be in negative for the first quarter earnings season and he does not concern you at all.
Absolutely and I think that's why we're not overly bullish on 2013.
We still think that the opportunities throughout there we have.
High single digit earnings growth prospects.
But at the same time I think you know have to be reminded that all of the negative things that -- talking about.
Wall Street has been aware -- for quite some time Wall Street tends to respond to negative news.
Fairly quickly and fairly deeply and it's almost like a -- -- Ball on the table it might respond subsequent -- but the response is less and less with each.
-- -- 1468 right now the series are really quick Telecom I don't ask you about that -- -- talking about apple.
A lot of news -- apple and Samsung at this point you do like the Telecom sector.
-- Telecom sector does have good earnings growth expected for the fourth quarter one of the better ones out there because they have not been engaged in a lot of -- and -- activity.
So as a result they have not in the sense shot themselves in the foot in terms of -- overpaying for their acquisitions.
Rights and so all thank you very much for being here good to have your market perspective as always thanks for being patient with us -- that my pleasure.
And JPMorgan -- chase CEO Jamie -- bonuses about to get -- -- that big trading --
