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Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders on the potential impact of the fiscal cliff deal and the debt ceiling debate on the U.S.’...
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-- other countries all the glib but that does not mean we are off the cliff credit agency Moody's warning to deal congress -- this is not cutting.
-- because it doesn't cut enough.
We consider those sound effects just to alarm you.
Now if Washington doesn't act over the next couple of months during the debt ceiling debates we might be saying goodbye to another triple A rating -- like -- -- strategist.
-- -- says more downgrades.
Could come down.
-- -- when the downgrade -- of Moody's skewed that brings Hannity now not this time so what would be the reason.
Well look they said that if we actually went over the cliff that that would probably be -- reason for them not to downgrade because it would have.
From a deficit perspective an -- perspective set us on that path much running quickly and more meaningful way yeah Evans and probably like that they would probably like that -- -- the numbers just work a little bit better in the near term and that's not the case this time so -- the question is do they wait until they see what happens.
Upon the debt ceiling if we get the kind of meaningful entitlement reform.
Maybe they hold off until then.
But I think certainly a couple of months only a couple of months away and that's going to be another big fight but I don't know that it has quite.
The calamitous impact that I think a lot of people assumed it would have back in August 2011.
So we sort of learned I think from that experience that it was not an Armageddon situation doesn't mean we should take it lightly.
But certainly the impact on things like treasury yields was not quite as dramatic as -- Yeah not surprising the -- covered -- -- -- -- was pulled out of the nearby restaurant.
When that news came to work late into the night on that in one of the things I notice is that never go on there if you had a lot to do it the other -- -- now.
Never make bold predictions and I thought it would be calamitous for us and and maybe owing to the times of the environment or.
We might -- but the world -- more it it it didn't have a big impact so let's say Moody's downgrades will inevitably look.
I think everything is relative and it's still relevant in terms of ratings and the fact that we are still the world's reserve currency and we are -- to use the progress term we -- still the clean -- the -- -- laundry whatever.
Fund Fraser way to think of it I think that will continue to apply -- time.
And I think what we found also was -- you know many investor policy statements could easily be re written to -- comedy that.
Because -- there is still that need to hold that you know safety perceived or otherwise know whether its triple a right or advice -- we found and it did not cause major disruptions in terms of some of the mandates that.
Whether it's a pension or endowment or foundation.
-- -- in Hong.
What did you think of the cliff Steele everyone has been -- at the 41 to one heights the cuts in it and and something happened from from that point to where we started when they were told him.
We like one -- 1221.
Tops.
Three to one was ideal what.
Let quit we didn't make anywhere near enough of the dent in the real problem here long term and everybody knows that both sides to -- was satisfied that events -- something -- done and -- -- on the tax piece.
We've got some of that uncertainty alleviated and for the most part that was a big deal in terms of businesses and planning out.
So I think that was the relief that Wall Street expressed and I think does.
Make the picture a little bit clear for businesses and maybe bring back some of the pent up demand but we're not finished in terms of the whole long term deficit reduction debt reduction -- that piece I think which certainly comes into play with the ratings agencies.
Is still had a that's affecting the tax -- with such a big uncertainty.
That now we know the rules of at least that part of the game I think a lot of players -- happened and what about their attitude.
This is a crowd that -- -- that taught -- that is evident that psychologically.
It's -- -- their -- well not only that but you know much has been said about now taxes are not going up on the majority.
But they have lost in the shadow -- general tariff and give a -- 2% but it's four point two to six point two which is a 50% increase.
So I think that'll be an interest -- for the thing to watch in the next couple of weeks as a consumer confidence has remained fairly resilient.
-- been greatly and it says check and now when they actually when the rubber hits the road and they get the check we'll have to see whether we get this sort of follow on debt to consumer -- see that happening I'm not actually economy to get news this is that the things that tend to track.
With consumer confidence public housing.
Energy prices.
Job growth have all been trending to the better.
So if those things continue to provide that offset I think we may be able to manage the wow -- -- -- his last but I think.
It will probably make at least a little bit of -- debt.
What's close and was in great SeniorNet think that have been the -- -- --
