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Upside Surprise for Jobs?

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    Anthony Chan of Chase Wealth Management gives his outlook for unemployment.

  • Duration 3:17
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Turning to jobs for a moment the private sector stepped up its hiring in the month of December if you look at today's numbers from ADP.

US attitude of 151000 private sector jobs last month it's pretty get a better than expected largest monthly increase since February and Anthony Chan joins us chief economist at.

Chase wealth management I guess it raises the expectations Anthony -- for the big.

Report tomorrow.

I think there's no doubt that it's gonna raise expectations.

But.

When you look at all the economic statistics that have been coming out -- the stars are aligned.

-- little bit of an improvement in.

In job creation when we look at say daily consumer confidence readings they are hovering at multi year highs and when you look at.

Other things out there they are in fact consistent with a little bit of an improvement so I would not be surprised.

To see nonfarm payrolls being reported tomorrow.

In the 180 to 185000.

-- and if I would say we -- the risk is I would say the risk is that the upside not to the downside.

Not that's -- interest -- more likely it's tough to get these numbers the right it's just that models for the -- we know from years of just tough to get.

An exact number but do you think it's more likely we would surprise to the upside.

The political intrigue there we're just talking about with debt heading here -- bleeds into this other another round of these talks in Washington.

Is that the biggest potential stumbling block in other words if we were able to remove that and know what was out there's economy look pretty good you are now.

I think by and large every time you take -- -- -- to table it does improve things somewhat.

We know that a lot of for us seals were complaining about the fiscal cliff but somehow they needed that piece of uncertainty to be taken off the table depth and we've haven't taken all of it off -- -- we have taken some of it off.

Business spending has been weak throughout 2012.

Dropped by and large I think that -- will pick up a little bit.

We know that even prospective homebuyers were -- feel a little bit relieved now that they know.

That the majority if not almost all -- taxpayers will not really receive a tax hike except for the -- -- Wealthy individuals all that will improve things and so you're gonna continue to get more incremental positive changes in the economy.

As the year progresses or a little bit weaker growth in the first half.

But I think in the second half of the year growth picks up a little bit.

But this last round of negotiations led do essentially no spending cuts being enacted -- mostly revenue which -- in that.

In that bill on the closing of tax loopholes and what have you -- if there's more cuts -- spending a lot of people so what's the right thing to do for the country long term but there's more cuts and spending.

In this next round will not slow the economy down a lot of maybe more than than -- you thinker.

Well it really depends on what kind of spending cuts so there remember never underestimate the ability of of people in congress to be creative of a lot of the spending cuts -- more back ended rather than front loaded that it doesn't really influence of 2013.

Everybody knows that the budget control act -- there and it's certainly looking over the shadows and over the shoulders of people in congress.

But if they would go ahead and take a lot of that spending in the outer years.

It's still doesn't really impede growth all that much of 2013 and I would not.

He surprise that we see more of that rather -- of that.

Sounds like the way the New York -- you -- -- structural their contracts whether still paying Bobby India believe this this guy get back loading and you know.

Thank you -- analogy good to see you well I do my best Starbucks meantime.

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