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A Record Year for Stocks?

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    Rob Morgan of Fulcrum Securities gives his outlook for growth and the markets.

  • Duration 4:38
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I want to look at the market reaction.

To the jobs picture our next guest has basically is crystal ball out right now his looking into some things in 2013.

He says.

Some big things are coming take a look at this.

He says the S&P 500 getting hit a record high he's a small caps are gonna be -- large caps emerging markets are gonna outperform the S and -- any says -- that's gonna break its pledge.

To hold rates steady through 2015.

Robert -- the that's the strategist.

Joins me now I was -- blame it on New Year's Day rob your note about 2013.

-- ask you about this your prediction about the -- you think that all bets are off the 2013.

They do -- I think that growth is stronger than a lot of people think Cheryl and you know QQE first is data and then and it will eventually but I I think by the end of the year the Fed is gonna be telegraphing and actually.

Beginning to love to raise rates.

Are you think they're gonna raise rates but at the same time you're making a big bet on emerging markets -- -- saying overseas.

-- -- the S&P is gonna -- -- new all time high.

Overseas as the story.

We've got a big global rate cut cycle going on Cheryl and so that's that's gonna help but international markets and and obviously without -- our rates beginning to tonight job not not a dramatic way bitten but nudging up.

That should really help the -- is as I mentioned in overseas markets in general.

And it's up about 14% over the last year I do -- -- say that now in there are some sectors.

One of the best performing sectors again was the financial sector robbing you -- that finances are gonna kick us off.

So at least for the short term you're looking -- Right right do you continue to like a financial -- even though -- you said they had a they had a pretty good year last year they're still relatively cheap because they.

They got so beaten down after the financial crisis so.

Look for continued improvement.

And also you're saying industrials -- -- because -- just because the fact that that group as well.

Had a huge jump for 2012 -- -- -- stay with that for the beginning at least -- this year.

With that with that with Fiat with the financials is for their chief but the industrials I think we're seeing some real earnings growth there so -- so that's more of a death of a growth story I'd take -- -- industrials.

All right so -- like industrials and you like financials we're gonna see what does your has written a DUS you know -- -- -- Rob bathtub back in of us have got -- rob today I'm a lucky girl how want to bring that -- -- -- a conversation because obviously the markets story.

Is the unemployment.

Picture we're gonna get the jobs report tomorrow -- bass I -- -- finale you're expected from a markets perspective well.

You know I think unemployment.

Is gonna hold steady I really don't think we're gonna see a marked change from past week.

And if -- -- specifically how I think the market's gonna react to it I'm not really sure I think they're they're gonna be optimistic about what the unemployment numbers are gonna bring I'm hoping that the small business market is gonna propping up and we're gonna continue to see hiring in the sector Robin Morgan you also are just predictions as well off the -- on unemployment figures about 7% for the year -- pretty confident.

Yeah well I think through the year we're gonna continue to see unemployment trend down as far as far as a particular number and rob and I were talking about this during during the break.

You know say it the ADP employment report as and a non farm payroll report they're not really correlated -- you know ADP was great.

It wouldn't surprise me if if nonfarm disappointed but I think.

At the that we if you look at the body of work of non farm pay payroll -- -- in the unemployment rate I think we're gonna see as a trend death.

Rob bass so you know -- -- you're talking about -- apparel issues that these small doses are gonna happen to try to make the switch now.

With -- what -- extension of the payroll tax small businesses though do you think that that's we're gonna see.

Growth in the job market do you think -- -- -- higher consumer they're dealing with attacks while 12% of the growth that we saw this past month in December was from small businesses under 500 employees so I really think they're gonna be the the lead the way.

Through 2013.

When -- -- hope happens is there's more public offering more smaller entities that are growing.

Then move into the public realm that's what I hope to -- and rob -- and you like small caps which if I'm not mistaken that's a switch for you from anywhere at this time last year what what changed your mind.

Well I think you know the dividend tax rates going up and of course that the big -- the big dividend payers but the fact that the dollar I think it's gonna start nudging -- that that hurts large cap multinationals.

Also just this rally -- a bull market and this is really the Fortier the bull market as as it moves along a small kid and you know.

We see performance expand and broaden out to the small cap sectors I think.

Lot of different factors air pointing to small caps and it is a change.

I think the group of companies in this country that we are gonna have to watch is gonna be those that fifty employees undercut -- not gonna wanna go above fifty employees because of health care costs anyway we're gonna have to follow that as well we'll gentlemen thanks to both -- you rob Morgan run -- so great to have you -- -- the favorites.

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