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NBT Equity Group CEO Tobin Smith and Money Map Press Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald on the outlook for the markets in the year ahead.
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But from the brink into the buying storm stock's shooting -- namely because all bull are not watching it got to deal done nevermind Italy goes deeper in debt and waited substantially more in.
Tax hikes and spending cuts as I've said repeatedly about.
41 times more tax hikes -- has to be exact but.
Why quibble over pennies when investors were just in -- New Year's moved to make serious cast.
Take a look at this the Dow -- over 300 points today.
Gold and oil also spiking but it is everything's gonna come crashing down now we're looking at a debt ceiling battle Moody's warning of a possible downgrade.
I say about the way we deserve the downgrade -- no more AAA than I am Michael Phelps AAA countries.
Face up to their troubles I think this is an awful comparison guys and I'm not appreciating the side by side but that's okay.
Odd thousand strategist Keith FitzGerald is not so optimistic about money thirteen or that side by side comparison while managers have expense societies with today's.
Predicting a good year ahead now -- you think we're gonna lose the top -- explain.
Yeah I think it's it's a fait accompli actually we have we -- the most indebted nation on the face -- planet spending has ground to a halt lending is not happening.
There's all kinds of reasons to keep your money on the sidelines not the least of which is we can't pay back the 202 point two trillion dollars we are all ourselves in terms of entitlements.
And we can't cut money from the budget's not taxes the issue is not democratic interest -- Republican issue it's it's an issue for this country's an embarrassment.
You know tell but I know guys like you look at this and you need closure you need certain do you need to know what really gonna happen -- -- good does need to know.
And I -- appreciate that I can understand part of rally because of that this uncertainty is gone but what seems certain to me.
Is that taxes with the payroll figure got an offer 80% plus Americans.
And that would health -- look you can add in all the taxes that come with that it is going to be a hit on our economy now I'd love to be wrong I don't think I am.
-- -- Well they'll remember we've got a couple things behind us remember for the last two or three years we -- -- head -- The you know real state market completely upside that we -- headwinds.
Of the banks completely upside you know.
And and those of the dissipated and -- and a lot of -- -- that -- -- one number two number three you know we always sort of knee jerk reaction around gasoline prices and all of prices -- up ten cents from five cents whatever.
And we taught ourselves about doesn't you know that's not kill our economy so the -- part of this deal.
Is that -- 20% of the wage earners in the United States are responsible for a majority more than 60%.
Of discretionary spending and at the margin.
And that's where I think that the economy.
You know stays fine let's let's not forget.
That -- sure we're gonna have a bloodbath and a market as we get down -- end -- march.
But I would be using that as a at a time to acquire stocks I would the last I want to do is think that that we were not gonna get through this.
Procedure.
You know it's gonna be ugly.
But when it's ugly debt doesn't really change a company that you know the banks 80% of its revenues outside the United States are accompanied its benefited from energy prices so let's not throw the baby out of the bath water.
We're gonna get it -- -- -- you know I think opens onto something there ended and I just and the economic activity.
Well that might be approved until but you know here's the thing is is that 80% of the economic activity does play cat does take place outside the United States but right now the United States is the best looking horse in the glue factory so decision and individuals have to make copies can -- realistically.
Pay back the money that we devote ourselves I believe the answer is no -- earnings hit the candy from 13% to three and a half percent that's a negative direction told we can't go there.
Maybe you've you've you've talked yourself into a frenzy here debate regardless of you know map may be right here Babs -- -- right there's about -- call in -- eighty trillion of unfunded liability.
But my lord that's -- 2085.
Let's talk about the next six to nine months because of all of that it really handle.
That's the present value of all the money we've already voted to give ourselves at some point -- watch is gonna have to own up to its responsibilities.
Blew up yeah.
I -- argument five years ago you're gonna wait until two years -- little tonic in your argument to say I essentially these international of those notwithstanding.
That we stink -- -- knowledge that but the rest of the world stinks -- you can't hang here have done.
Well bill I can hang my hat and a couple things -- want.
This is built a bull market and everybody is hated since the beginning of -- right -- is good -- is worse than Rodney Dangerfield get no respect at all.
Well one of -- areas -- -- not respect is because really Smart guys like -- are out waving the flag of you know the net present value of of a hundred trillion dollars to the year 2085.
And that's not how business people make this isn't that how not how copyright.
The music is going to run out of we stated this -- way for the rest of our lives.
But thankfully we live -- a republic where at some point in time it'll be so painful that would that we will do something.
And we have the benefit now of a little time because we have such low interest rates so to push the panic button on the net present -- -- -- out almost 75 years.
Did to me is not a good investment strategy in the short term.
But less -- last time I checked you have to have cash to open the doors tomorrow -- whether that's true for an individual -- continuity Ireland's government.
-- -- -- -- -- This that this is that this is precisely the problem this is government at the expense of the American public when in fact they should be for the benefit -- the American public.
If earnings have slowed down from 15% last year two years ago all we have three and a half percent this year that marginally above inflation which they say that say it doesn't exist.
Or is manageable we have cost living adjustments.
The budgets continue to have pork added to them when in fact the true portion of what should be allocated is not spend the first place that is problematic.
But can't keep your your your macro MacWorld macro -- macro big picture.
If you're using your point that you would have never bought stocks in 2009.
Because we went out -- tripled or quadrupled the cuts the deficit you know as they don't.
The bottom line two different directions we can go what -- -- is right whoever it is I'll bring back I think of any wrongdoing let you know -- that.
I seriously thank you both very much meanwhile --
