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Forex.com Senior Currency Strategist Chris Tevere and Wells Fargo Head of Currency Strategy Nick Bennenbroek on the outlook for currencies.
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Only -- touching a two week high in intraday trading and the US dollar index posting slight gains after lawmakers did approve a last minute fiscal bit it -- deal but that political showdown is far from over and with a debt limit debate just a couple of weeks away one of the best ways to make money in the currency market this year.
You know the last week with somebody who set by the south African Rand but I can't wait to hear what our expert panel says now Crist -- fear is four X dot com senior currency strategist.
And nick -- -- Wells Fargo head of currency strategy they've got some ideas but.
Before we get your favorite picks -- -- tackle the dollar.
It appears every time that we do that quantitative easing that that tends to be dollar negative with very low rates dollar negative.
Right now we don't have a really strong dollar at the moment in trade today but what do you think about the US dollar right now -- -- first.
Well I think it's it's a bit of a mixed picture certainly the easing is going to be negative for the US dollar against the commodity and the emerging currencies but when you look at the year in the -- And he and perhaps even the count those countries also -- easing monetary policy aggressively solar maybe the dollar hold -- -- against those currencies Chris what it what about you what do you think about the dollar.
I have to be in agreement with it -- a fellow guests there you know we start looking at.
The dollar specifically we just have to look at that in relation to some of these other currencies are -- in this -- to debase your globally specifically you quit with the Bank of Japan.
And potentially later in the year with the ECB and and maybe even the -- we steps back into itself.
The dollar's probably likely remain relatively weak vs some of these but it's deftly -- pick -- type.
Mark you know nick -- Chris brings up -- Japan which is faster because -- as folks who've been noting.
Might might realize that they are actually gonna be putting money even more than we have been printing money and and yet you say -- that selling the Euro is a better option.
Then selling the Japanese -- even though Japanese yen's value is gonna go way down because of all this currency pretty why.
Well I mean I think the issue with the Japanese yen is does that -- -- the fundamentals and negative in terms of the economy in terms of what the Central Bank is doing but.
Of course the Japanese yen has already moved very quickly rituals by some harm though the volume from a subsidiaries and non all the way up to 87 and the yard I think in terms of the -- -- We're certainly I think getting a stronger starting point -- -- starting point and so I think he's more.
Potential for the currency to -- and of course eurozone economy does remain conversation it's going to be an underperform of the Europe.
Skip to your favorite currencies and Chris you go first you know if if I wanted to dip my toe into currency investing which one would you go along which one would you short.
Follow that that's pretty loaded question but -- what -- look at these markets and there's a few different ones of course they're -- -- talks about the Euro dollar in and dollar yen in men.
Those -- currencies which I think could have some real potential market moving consequences of over the next week and a half to two weeks -- -- But more specifically with for what perspective the -- US is doing here I think we -- be looking at currencies that have exposure to the US and that being.
Canadian dollar -- and he's -- We think -- since they have ramifications with with commodities with crude oil and with some of those trade flows there that they might stand to benefit.
Over let's say next three to six months going -- -- so with respect to loonie which is the Canadian dollar there.
We think we might see a little but a downside to forgets -- about 96 -- may even -- -- 2011.
-- they were dollar had me something towards the 94 handle nick.
What happens if this rally was short lived.
Why they I think Carol we're in terms of you know you be one outcome for the short term optimism as far as the -- Canadian dollar in the mix -- -- as the guest suggested.
But I believe beyond that you are different looking at that short your position is it's certainly being a good -- Beyond the short term enthusiasm we've got -- the whole fiscal cliff about coming up again very shortly -- by the end of thievery.
Sorry what I think the the the pushed on the currencies will be relatively brief and -- -- through the deployments.
What Brazil.
The rail was a great trade two years ago certainly people really liked that idea do you look at some of the south American nations and say boy they are screaming growing at a big way.
What we do it -- like like the Mexican peso I think the Chilean peso is another country -- we see strong growth we we see steady interest rates.
Brazilian real what they can -- -- to be spirit when you place -- -- and -- -- or Chile at the sports probably an underperform.
Hey Chris if if Australia if China continues to improve and Australia continues to provide them with a materials they need to grow.
Argue put your money back and Australian currency.
I alluded that we CBOs to move a little bit higher I think doesn't have to be very strategic here in -- and we just got over the fiscal cliff -- we don't wanna get off the dollar.
Bearish bandwagon too early here we we -- had about.
A six week period here where we could see some some pretty substantial dollar weakness and I think that -- can be a a major beneficiary there.
Before we go we just want explain to people you know nick I guess to say it's a two trillion dollar market it's -- what a three or four trillion dollar market the currency markets and it's largely unregulated correct.
I -- there's a lot of over the counter trading as far as not not through the exchange's us -- sort of over the killed trading -- in this instance it doesn't go through central -- system.
And it and you are right it's three -- four trillion you.
Dole's product nick Brennan book broke -- and Chris severe gentleman I was classic candidate Chris and forgive me I -- I -- it.
Italian pronunciation and good to see you both gentlemen it's a happy trading appreciate it thank you thank you.
