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-- see in fifteen minutes our next guest.
Says we may have averted the fiscal cliff but there is still a bumpy road ahead for stocks -- first.
Stock and commodity traders almanac editor in chief joins us now and you are bearish you are not convinced that this rally has any reality to an -- Well you know we've got some good indications from this rally and it's nice to see the Santa Claus rally back in the black but we've got a couple months of -- potentially ugly negotiations for the spending cuts and the debt ceiling -- soften.
I think it was Otto Von Bismarck who set out laws like sausages but are not see -- being made.
I think -- people Luis -- side I would -- -- off -- that is how it's all planned out but let me ask you this you know -- put -- a -- -- -- it was a week ago.
They they they're not optimistic about where we're going Bill Gross actually -- don't expect any -- -- stocks or bonds this year greater than 5%.
Amazing works that's what I'm in print with -- mean.
10% -- push up against the -- -- new all time highs base case about plus or minus 5% with a mid year correction.
And bad case.
This fiscal cliff deal means not a whole lot and things that your -- -- world and we you know ignite a new bear market.
And when you talk about igniting a new bear market how quickly could that might that happen would it be before we deal of that debt ceiling issue and how much of a correction we look -- -- Well I'm in bear markets that we 2030%.
Doesn't have to happen this year could drag -- to get that -- you're this year and we could see that.
You know very typical mid the mid term election your bottom and when he fourteen.
Not specific on exactly when that might happen I would say probably not before the end of the first quarter of if I have -- -- -- -- -- historically is any kind of thing you can look at -- to gauge where we're gonna be going -- has everything been thrown out since 2000 have.
Now over the has not don't you know we had the the huge financial crisis was sort of -- all sorts of seasonality isn't cycles but they've been firing panel pistons and and -- particular close to historical precedents for several years now since about the a full point of 2009.
The Santa Claus rally the seven day period of -- and tomorrow will be our first indication that choosing bullish up one point 5% and the S&P since 1950.
When it fails sometimes bears come to broaden wall and that's folks in the last -- -- flat market tonight before.
And 05 when and bears in 2002008.
Hypothetical I mean -- this is a big yet but if congress if the president get their act together if we avert a nasty fight over the debt ceiling if we avert.
A nasty fight over spending cuts mean what would it take to take this rally and even push it further may be break out some of the levels that are homeless back.
Really good economic numbers are real and continuing decline in the job market a big picked up in the housing market.
Increased you know growth over in China and the rest of the world not the sort of that we're getting -- but we have yet again now but I you know -- -- question we get contraction in Europe China's biggest part and I mean it doesn't look like that's ever gonna happen in the -- that's -- one of the reasons -- an -- the four year cycle with the post election in the worst of four years and you know some of the in the keys were still on the secular bear market it would take a lot of I think the drivers to significantly want Hamas to first thank you very much spare plaza -- spanky who fled.
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