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KBW senior vice president of Washington research Brian Gardner weighs in on the fiscal cliff deal and his outlook for the markets.
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-- -- -- -- Erskine Bowles and Alan sensing calling a fiscal -- deal a missed opportunity clearly the markets though don't think so at least for now.
But -- our next guest Brian -- TVW senior VP of Washington research joins me now.
Brian thanks for joining us.
When the dust clears on this do you think of what are you telling clients that this is good or bad for the markets and economy what's your take.
It's a short term good we averted some really bad stuff -- we go went over the cliff.
We would have been going into a short term economic perception.
So we -- that that's good.
Longer term it's not as good we didn't get the grand bargain that that congressman Walsh alluded to I didn't think that was possible.
That's the next step -- -- and I think the market is kind of enjoying this the celebration of the fiscal close victory.
And -- shortly start -- then refocus yeah on the bigger fiscal problems.
Although I mean -- -- a market that's up 231 points -- on average we almost always trade up on the first trading day of the year anyway.
I mean the average is something like 2% so we're not really doing any better than we would have been any other first trading day of the year.
That's sad when you look at the notes that other banks have put out JPMorgan for example I'm seeing this in and imposes considerable near term headwinds to growth.
While doing very little to address longer run fiscal sustainability issues that they think.
In the long -- is actually not even -- long -- relatively near term that when people sit down to really look through this it is not a good deal for the markets and economy.
-- -- a look at what we have -- we've had to very anemic economic growth for the better part of the last four years.
That is not going to change this deal is not a game changer doesn't change that.
I'm -- my only sends -- -- why I'm bomb somewhat positive on the deal.
Is what the alternative -- but he still there there are two alternatives to what we have which one was a grand bargain.
The other was going over the cliff the going over the cliff would have been disastrous at least in the short term.
I just think that the grand bargain with just totally implausible.
Given a lame duck session lame duck sessions always under deliver.
On on policy changes and I could also make the argument -- will make the argument.
They're doing a major policy changes of a grand bargain.
In a very short timeframe between election and the into the new year could have actually resulted in some really bad policy changes could rush to get things -- -- In -- -- literally because some people are saying that at that about this particular deal but how important is it then that -- maybe it takes the new congress but how important is it.
Where the government to sit down.
And really get their financial books in order at at this point how -- -- -- the economy into the US maybe the next year to let's not even -- Really long term but relatively near term.
-- why it you know -- At some point but within the bond vigilantes are going to step in and say enough is enough -- what that point is nobody knows but at some point during -- chiefs 2013.
Congress and even that any ministry sure going to have to sit down.
And change.
The the trajectory of where the US budget is going and to the extent they can do that successfully.
Then net drag on the economy I think it's diminish I'm not that hopeful of the be able -- get something done.
But that's what they're looking -- now.
-- Frank Carter thanks so much for coming on.
Thank you Melissa.
