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2013 Auto Outlook

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  • Description

    Sterne Agee senior research analyst Mike Ward weighs in on the future of the auto sector.

  • Duration 3:26
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-- lovers listen I'm good news for the recovering auto industry with some analysts expecting sales to break more than twelve million dollars in the coming year joining me.

Now twelve million dollars -- ballot more than that with his outlook for the sectors like ward with -- turned.

I'm gonna get this name on forgive me might started Agee and -- right.

Perfect I got -- right thank you.

What are we expecting tomorrow card numbers and why is this going to be good for -- -- so where are we get close to fifty million units here.

Yes we are -- you don't do first -- thank you for having me and happy new year and if you're the auto industry right now I follow the auto industry for thirty years.

From a fundamental standpoint you know demand outlook cost structure balance sheet new product.

US auto industries probably in the best shape that I've seen in a thirty year period sales tomorrow be released throughout the day we should see a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Somewhere in the fifteen to fifteen point five million unit level in that is good news for the industry and has a lot of momentum heading into 2013.

-- things that are driving sales you have the average -- of a -- on the road today is eleven years -- just a demographic issues not only the age of the car but people need new cars.

Will we see that -- -- -- I'm reading articles that say younger people in their twenties no longer want to have their own set of weeks.

And I don't know twenty year old.

I have to a home.

I think -- the one thing you look at is the vehicle fleet right now is eleven years of age and older than it's ever been.

About 37% of the vehicles on the road are actually over the age of twelve.

So the vehicle fleet is aging Americans are not gonna stop driving and about two million new drivers coming into the market each year.

When you look at just the normal underlying demographic trends.

They're very positive if the economic variables -- even better we probably see your like sixteen million units.

In the US in 2013.

Not fifteen million -- you're also predicting some good things for -- -- motors although it final correct Toyota's gonna reclaim the spot as number one -- auto maker worldwide why do you think GM is headed for a good here.

General Motors -- you're primarily if you think back one general orders went through its restructuring.

-- in any restructuring of two components of a cost component in the never revenue component.

They've done a lot to -- -- to a to address the cost side of that restructuring.

Now the revenue side of that restructuring is starting to kick in the new pick up trucks are going to be a big plus I think they'll be highlighted that the -- -- auto show.

In addition GM has now a broader spectrum of more profitable small vehicles that should help them from a profit standpoint North American -- -- As well as the new fusion are they gonna be able to get over that in the -- That that you just wanna avoid the headlines anytime you have a product of most vehicles go through some sort of an issue with a small percentage.

Ford is in great shape in the small vehicle side of the business they've a lot of new product -- across third or global small car platforms.

With the fusion the PS to the focus.

And the escape -- very strong product throughout the small vehicle lineup in -- is also profitable in all regions with small vehicles whether it's North America Europe South America or Asia.

And that puts him on a global.

Scale with anybody else in the in the global vehicle market.

The Japanese based manufacturers the -- for Europeans so Ford from a product standpoint remains in very good -- I think Alan Mulally called it one forward Mike -- thank you very much good thanks revenue.

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