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S&P Capital IQ Global Markets’ Erin Gibbs on where the markets are headed in the year ahead.
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See -- stocks are rising on obstacles -- Fiscal cliff deal in this headed for solid gains in 2012 actually would joining me now is Aaron gets equity portfolio manager for -- capital.
IQ global markets Aaron thank you so much for -- joining us.
It has been a solid year for 2012 let's push forward now assuming and this is a big assume.
That we get some sort of deal on the fiscal cliff what are you expecting in 2013.
You know right now we're actually pretty positive we're looking for 11 and a half percent GDP growth.
The numbers that came out in November there -- couple numbers that were very positive we saw existing home sales.
Cross of five million units which is the highest since 2009.
And we also saw auto sales cross above fifteen million which is -- -- since 2008.
So those -- the big ticket purchases that were looking for.
Since 2007 we've seen that consumer spending keeping the economy going but we didn't see those big ticket sales come -- And November was the first time we saw that so we're.
Assuming that the fiscal cliff goes through and I'm sure well whether announced today -- -- -- -- -- sure well.
Were actually pretty positive.
Our concern however is earnings.
Guidance and analysts' estimates have really been extremely negative some of that the lowest that we've seen in recent years.
On and we see that valuations but we still it's seeing a lot of opportunities in the stock market.
In this low yield environment we're still very positive on equities.
And we still feel there a lot of opportunities about.
-- what about opportunities there and overseas.
Odd you know the -- for instance out of Germany up 30% this year.
Should we be looking overseas -- a good return.
Personally with our with our investors I actually got them more towards US stocks in fact one of the things we look at -- our US companies that don't have a lot of European exposure -- certainly Northern Europe is still doing well.
I'll but I just find that entire area is is just it's it's a little too more too much risks than what it's worth.
When you can still invest in the US what about China again isn't very good manufacturing numbers out today highest in a year and a half.
That sounds like a -- -- solid growth.
Yes I think China is very stable still an opportunity we look at we do we do invest we -- in our global portfolios we definitely has an Asian exposure mean.
-- there is definitely some concern in the fourth quarter we saw some of the manufacturing and birth rates come down but still.
An opportunity -- out there.
So what do you like in particular as far as sectors go -- particularly stops.
Looking towards next year.
Act absolutely glad you -- that so one thing that -- look at is equality is a company able to.
I operate and deliver earnings and dividends in a variety of market conditions.
And we see that a lot with the consumer was exposed consumer Staples -- consumers discretionary.
One stock that we really like is Safeway now it's been beaten down I know.
I'll -- is -- -- it has bid but this is the value this is they're gonna get and so that's one of our stocks that we we like another one and we also likened Staples not so that quite has beaten down.
But done very well on a variety of marking conditions to -- still in the office supplies not a what we're still going to work.
And then also high dividend yielding stocks even with the tax increases I know there whenever the -- -- I'm sure the rates will be higher.
But companies are loath to respond to political environment changes -- just historically they don't tend to change their policies because of taxation differences.
Partially does not your investors are taxable.
So we still look for dividend yielding because cash and -- it is still a great way to avoid.
-- take off the -- some of the risk from equities flag and still have that exposure to -- area.
Good tips and data -- -- thank you so much for joining us on this New Year's unhappy need to you.
-- -- years thanks right.
