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-- minutes what is no deal yet so what -- the immediate impact to be Washington cannot come together.
Americans well -- and expect 536 billion dollars in tax increases.
Payments to Medicare providers will drop by 27%.
Extended unemployment benefits.
-- -- by a full two million individuals and a 110 billion dollars an automatic domestic and military spending cuts well.
We should have listened to our next guest no doubt about that he called it he knew it would come down to the wire.
The so how does he think he's gonna play out from here as he.
We're gonna get a last minute deal -- all his Wall Street Journal senior economics -- statement like UN hair I think earlier this month said look we're going to be back here talking with you.
On the area are on your -- -- able -- -- -- but we are getting -- -- of some kind of -- this -- put together what are your thoughts right now.
You know I I -- -- heard for the first time what you just heard your report from the White House and from congress about the very latest.
And that that framework of that deal that was -- by rich I think that's something that probably could make it through the senate and the house.
It's not gonna make it through the house with all the Republican votes so.
-- people -- which is gonna have to probably deliver.
Anywhere from fifty to a hundred votes from her Democratic Caucus to get that through because as you -- you know there -- a lot of conservative Republicans -- for -- for any tax increase in the but of course but let's not -- that gets -- around the immediate problem of this you know what they're calling the fiscal -- but this is just -- one of course you know that we deal with the debt ceiling and we deal with the budget and trillions of dollars of that over the next five years so this is just got.
The kind of opening bid if you well but I think it would be good news for the markets if a deal like this spot were enacted and it would probably happen tomorrow.
-- you talk about the markets and -- ask you about their role in getting us to this point and whenever we've been in this political waffling situation before we've seen.
Steep declines in -- -- multi hundred -- multi hundred point decline down some instances we haven't seen that in this case is this part of that -- and what it's December 31 at one at 7 PM eastern time.
That we're in this position because the markets didn't have any falling off the cliff moment.
You know I would argue that like the last collect the last two weeks have been pretty pretty brutal for the markets and I think that has been kind of the lead up to this to this current situation -- But you know who knows the markets going and I'm not a market -- -- but I do think it you know there will be a big sigh of relief.
If we get a deal today or tomorrow and I think the markets -- celebrate.
Come later this week if that happens of course the double is in the details it matters a lot what we do with the capital gains rate what we do with the dividend rate and how you know what.
You know is you know -- about.
Fifteen or twenty movable.
Pieces in the Basel and -- A lot of mommy yeah what are we get about the AMT what are you gonna do have to Medicare doctor -- what are we gonna do how about -- they capital gains noted that.
I mean there's so many pieces to this we don't even know what the deal final deal's gonna look like.
Well and -- you know for John Thain has been a difficult one as you say there are many Republicans who say no tax increase -- at old so this is quite a concession.
What does it do to his leadership.
You know I think John -- there was a lot of scuttlebutt.
About three or four days ago -- that John Boehner was in trouble because he couldn't get the plan B through and it was a bit of an embarrassment but I think he actually.
I heard that he got a little standing ovation from his pockets earlier.
I think he comes out of this if he can get this through the congress.
I think still be as strong as ever and of course is -- sad.
This is just -- opening round of negotiations.
This is gonna go on for six months or a year because we still have to pass a budget -- a debt ceiling.
And debt ceiling tax and thirty yeah that's right that's right but -- probably got more to come state law senior economics writer with a Wall Street Journal state thank you so much.
Happy new year guys how -- to.
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