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Janney Chief Investment Strategist Mark Luschini on the impact on the markets and economy if a fiscal cliff deal is reached.
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-- costs the headlines about the gridlock in Washington.
What do the fundamentals of the economy really looked like -- they not that bad remote 2013 be the -- if he used to make money certainly hope so.
But -- he Janney Montgomery Scott chief investment strategist joining me now -- at the end exclusive.
-- thank you for being here you are unabashedly.
Bullish on -- -- I -- well I feel pretty good about the underlying economic fundamentals in spite of what's being played out on the television -- and to that point you say -- and a fiscal cliff it's of fiscal slope is all being overblown well.
I think -- terminal factor that resides on 1231 sort of puts it to an exclamation points -- the media deploy into and and enlist eyeballs to the -- but the fact of the matter is we know it doesn't necessarily mean we will incur -- recession on January 2.
We'll have some time to work through ultimately a compromise that I think will probably lead to maybe a one to one and a half percent.
-- economic activity in 2013.
Leaving positive albeit still somewhat anemic.
Growth for the year but that said I still think though the certainty brought with the resolution the fiscal cliff.
Will lead to an uptick in business activity and consumer confidence.
They'll help growth to accelerate through the rest of 2013.
So with that in mind you say stay strong.
Equities what kind of equities what sector what are you talking about.
I think you need to actually -- -- is still of equity valuations are and demanding and when compared to the alternative there's not much that we have competition show.
Within the equity markets we continue to like US equities there's pockets within the US equity market they look very attractive still energy particularly in.
And as well as technology even health care to some degree in fact both for yield oriented investors as well as those looking for capital growth.
But increasingly because risks are receiving on a global basis we're suggesting investors begin -- -- To non US equities international markets have looked very appealing right now are -- -- budget targets on the -- -- -- what are you looking at best worst scenario.
We have a base case stereo 1545.
On the S&P 500 about eight to 10% or so out of the money you over the course of 2000 right now 1414.
Yes say it is Cindy in that would imply mid to upper single digit earnings growth and very little -- way of multiple expansion to get to that kind of figure.
On a more optimistic case out of 1680 out there that is optimistic.
-- it is in this is an area that is in a majority probability for us but nonetheless we put it on the table in the context of us.
Getting past the fiscal clip seeing an increase in certainty.
Risk continue to compete internationally in as a consequence of earnings growth coupled with multiple expansion.
Leads us to a number that we think is a stretch goal but plausible three out of ten child she never know what about worst case scenario.
Worst case scenario is that this fiscal cliff scenario drags on well in the 2013.
With the overlay that debt ceiling issue in -- first couple of months of the year and as a consequence.
We get a pretty substantive correction in the equity markets perhaps down to 1250 or so.
From which though we get resolution because we know our elected officials only seemed to act under -- And the market right might lead them to do that.
And then subsequently we get a pickup in activity that leads us back to a year -- figure of about 14100 a little below where we are today.
Wanna get to this Microsoft.
Has not exactly been a great investment over the years.
Surface tablets -- getting a lukewarm reception.
PC monkey could -- -- is dying.
What an earth makes you wanna go with Microsoft.
The stock while having had many false -- admittedly is exceedingly cheap I mean you're talking about a company that's -- you know asset rich.
You know -- and generates.
Nine billion dollars of free cash flow quarter -- is sitting on fifty billion dollars in cash.
He's a pretty handsome yield today of north 3% which you expect to see continuing to increase going forward.
And we think because it is such -- -- and if you will the businesses some of which are now in areas that are new like Smartphones and tablets should we think the -- the ability to financially millionaire themselves to growth.
Very good month machining Janney Montgomery Scott thank you so much for being -- especially appreciate it very bullish art --
