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What is Needed to Get a Last-Minute Fiscal Cliff Deal?

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    WSJ Washington Bureau Chief Jerry Seib on the fiscal cliff negotiations.

  • Duration 3:29
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The clock ticking down what are the chances for fiscal -- deal.

Let's try to look on the bright side here -- -- Washington bureau chief for the lucky Jenner.

Jerry I am -- being facetious when I sailing year's resolution is just say fiscal -- never again but.

It we could get a quick fix right and then potentially not have to say this -- -- Stewart again.

We could you know sometimes things are darkest just before the dawn -- other times darkest just before they go completely black it's hard to know today which is -- -- the case in Washington but.

Yet here's how you could get a deal I think still quickly.

It will be sort of a minimalist feel that does the bare minimum necessary to prevent the big tax increases and spending cuts that go along with going off the cliff.

The way it could happen would be.

If the senate decides to take that bill that rich just referred to that the house -- weeks and weeks ago that essentially just continued bush era tax rates for everybody.

Took that bill amended it to -- Democrats which is to say to reduce the the the those tax rates that are going to be extended to -- to -- 50000 dollars and below.

Let him go up for everybody else -- on a couple of things that everybody wants to get done like extending the Alternative Minimum Tax exclusion for lots of people.

And maybe -- -- unemployment insurance benefits.

And then take that bill and send -- back to the house so be the senate essentially acting on a bill that the house passed long ago.

And then see if the house would actually have the votes to pass that the only way that -- done is who is with some Republican votes in the senate.

And a big chunk about half the Republican caucus in the house could that be done I don't know the politics of that are still very tricky.

Right because now really we're down to Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell basically starting to I -- have conversations right.

Absolutely that's this is the action is in the senate you know we can talk as much about the house I spent most of the last month talking about the house in the White House.

Right now -- the place to keep your eye on is the senate -- Harry Reid it's Mitch McConnell.

And they'll be doing more out of public view -- -- will be in public views which is make mix of very -- analyzes it may be that they're doing nothing.

But history and the last couple a crisis like this suggests that at this hour the people who watch for those two guys in the senate.

OK so we Watson and you're saying that.

Because really forties right to the papers that potentially we get some Republican succumb to -- now on this thing we could have a deal -- -- And I on the 31.

Right what we do need it what would have to happen for the scenario I just described to come to pass would be that you first of all have to.

Have Mitch McConnell and senate Republicans agreed to let it come to a vote to not try to obstruct that -- -- -- that's not clear.

But if they did -- if it got to a vote this and I suspect there -- be a few Republicans who have supported and that'll be enough.

To get through the senate.

Better -- back to the house and there I think the big question is.

How many house Republicans would vote for something that extends tax rates for many people but not all people into next year.

They wouldn't have to vote to raise taxes for anybody but by not voting.

Two to keep taxes low for some people at the top end they would just be letting them pass that letting them rise on the -- is that good enough I don't know we'll find out.

Yet you right -- -- I got -- quickly ask you about our debt ceiling -- mean technically we hit it on Monday.

Tim Geithner said it will use Fuzzy accounting to give us more time I mean highs -- -- -- -- Not clear you know that's the 64000 dollar question.

The White House trying to keep it out of it Republicans are increasingly tempted to bring it into it.

We probably haven't tell me February sometime before that becomes the question I think something has -- happen before we hit the debt ceiling.

There will be back at it again when that time arises I think.

-- sad I hope you're right sir thank you and that's --

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