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Could Fiscal Cliff Derail Housing Market Recovery?

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  • Description

    AEI Fellow Ed Pinto on the outlook for the housing market in the year ahead.

  • Duration 4:00
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-- -- Isn't good news for the housing recovery of the latest case Shiller report shows home prices in the twenty city index actually grew four point 3% year over year.

This is despite a slight slip from one -- -- there.

It's led to cities with a one point 4% -- marking that -- thirteenth straight month of growth.

She got a New York -- the only two cities with negative annual returns in October down one point 3% and one point 2% respectively.

-- -- case Shiller housing report could be a sure sign that the housing recovery is gaining strength.

But should we expect housing to continue to gain momentum in 2013.

So it's day one of our series outlook to thirteen.

Can't -- -- op -- -- a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

-- -- Let's just say argument sake we -- the -- -- the fiscal cliff what happened thousand.

I think housing to -- percent goes off with it well end up with a recessions.

And that'll.

Dampen.

Homebuyers enthusiasts are buying homes and we'll see a down tick in house prices and an uptick in foreclosures.

That's good news -- let's go out glass half all they fix this thing.

Fiscal -- solved.

Housing market.

What is it -- What what's the big thing that you think 2013 will bring it is the year -- of the rental of new construction of what should we expect to see if all goes well in Washington.

I think what we should expect to see is a continuation of the recovery which started this past year.

You just reported that house price -- about 4%.

I'm expecting that house prices in 2013 only up three to 4% that's actually a nice solid steady recovery.

You don't wanna taking off and having increases of 81015%.

-- -- not sustainable.

The best we can hope for is a good solid recovery.

We've got some real positive as the fundamentals are strong.

House prices are down affordability is up rents.

It cost less to own -- house than direct.

The downside is.

We've got the government is continuing to distort.

The housing market in the -- all markets for that matter and that potentially raises some red flags down the road.

And you're actually said that it's -- from your notes sowing the seeds of future disaster as long as the government policies can remain in place.

Well how do we get out of them at this point.

I think the good news for 2000 twelve that hasn't been reported.

Is that.

The fees charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Are approaching I say approaching the level that they actually need to be.

To support the private sector coming back into this market Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac of underpriced credit -- for decades you know decades everybody knows that.

And the FHFA following.

Congress the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been raising those fees and we're now at a point where.

We're getting close to them being self sustaining.

In 2013.

Are supposed to go up again probably around.

Another fifth of -- percent and that'll put him at a point where the private sector can actually start coming back in this market that's important.

Because the federal government has no capital backing the ten trillion dollar market absolutely not -- FHA is insolvent.

We need to bring the private sector back re actually gonna have real money backing this report -- backing this market.

Earning real returns and that's why it's important having these are great and I guarantee fees being raised.

You know at at I know we have to talk we have with Red -- time -- fodder for another day but we gotta talk about how we're gonna unwind this -- to me that is going to be really ugly.

FHA had -- between Fannie and Freddie and all that -- and -- of taking years.

It could take years but you have to journey 2000 -- -- starting the single step.

I agree -- content thank you very much well he's okay thank you Tracy was a pleasure happy new year happy new year -- when it.

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