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Jerry Seib, WSJ Washington Bureau chief, breaks down what will actually happen to taxes if the government goes over the fiscal cliff
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Week until the fiscal cliff deadline 50% of Americans saying we'll get a deal 48% saying it's a no go this according to a a new Gallup poll that's a big change from poll conducted just last week we're joined by Wall Street Journal Washington bureau -- Jerry side.
-- house speaker Boehner and the Republicans in the house were unable to do it.
Now does the focus in the pressure shift to the senate and the Democrats.
That does -- simply shifts to the senate but I think in the senate it's both Democrats and Republicans because you know.
Last year when we're in this fix couldn't get out of the debt ceiling crisis it was Harry Reid the Democrat leader in the senate.
And Mitch McConnell the Republican leader in the senate to do that kind of emerged as the adults in the room and worked up something that got through congress.
I suspect we are on the very verge of something like that or at least an attempted to replicate that -- this time.
-- it one of the interesting question is how much overall the White House -- play it may just be.
As in 2011 that the two senate leaders decide they can take care this themselves we'll see what President Obama gets back tomorrow.
And the hall or advice here is to think small you're thinking a smaller deal rather than something sweeping.
I think sell you know there was that there was this sense a week or two ago that you either have a big deal or we go off the cliff but the dynamic seem to change at the end of next week and I think the reality is that what's possible here is a small deal.
Probably something that deals with the that it is the tax breaks for that the tax levels for most Americans those under two -- 50000 dollars or maybe half a million dollars something like that being extended.
Great uncertainty about everything else including the tax rates for others and spending cuts and that a lot of decisions kicked into next year.
That's seems to be what's possible and if that's possible the kind of deal I just described.
Is probably only possible to get through the house without an equal number of democratic and Republican votes that's the most likely scenario I think right now.
Jerry would this be up positive scenario we came out what actually is a small agreement but at least it has bipartisan support is that a victory -- -- end -- being humiliating and a defeat for both parties.
Oh well it it's a good question and answer -- -- assertive as opposed to watch you know as compared to -- I suppose it's a victory as opposed to going over the -- It's probably a good and a good thing as you suggest to get something passed with some bipartisanship.
If you're gonna go into a year next year in which lots of decisions have to be made.
And there's really clear partisan divisions in the house in particular to establish a precedent that something could pass with safer so roughly equal numbers of democratic and Republican votes.
Would not be an entirely bad thing I think.
The question is whether it would be empowering to house speaker John Boehner or would undercut -- it's.
It's really hard for him to put something on the floor of the house that doesn't command -- support of the majority of Republicans his own Republicans in the house so that's what's tricky about the current environment.
-- his own party kind of left them hanging in last time around on that on that plan deep well of if we do manage to get go over the -- that we don't get a deal Biden.
January 1 Jerry.
Can't they just get a deal week or two later thought the other world is.
No it's not the -- world that's absolutely right although some things get very hard for example real making the affixed to the Alternative Minimum Tax who's gonna hit millions and millions of Americans at the end of the year unless something is done.
Retrofitting that is going to be difficult it's gonna be hard to get over the market's psychological and bought it impact going over the cliff even briefly you know one of the interest -- things Dennis is that.
You know the markets have been very Blase about this whole thing.
They clearly think something's gonna happen in the last few days of the year if that doesn't happen there's going to be a psychological jolt because expectations will not have been met.
That won't be a good thing but.
Washington being Washington you can kind of retro -- -- any solution.
And walk it back to the in the first of the year you've -- couple weeks into the year video alright -- -- hope that thank you Jerry side.
-- And here's a great stories --
