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Omnivest Group CIO Tom Sowanick on the outlook for the markets and economy in the year ahead.
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World -- Right so markets on -- after talks to reach a budget deal -- -- to be in total disarray.
Look at the noise around the fiscal could create buying opportunities joining us now -- -- co president chief investment officer of -- -- group.
-- like the first glass half full guy we've had gone pretty much in my what wells weeks why.
Well tell us I don't know why you know what I including the world is coming up.
And think that the -- look at the facts right did.
Markets up 15% for the year and a -- 4% over this last month when they've been fighting over into.
High yield bonds are up about.
16% for the year.
Even when we were last on on your.
Dot com show we were talking about.
Can it ETF that was an emerging market consumer debt -- That's up 30% -- September really doesn't legacy haven't jump around this town just put I think it's just beginning and -- I think is just beginning.
Because we have confirmation that Bernanke will stay at the Fed.
So we're gonna be anchored zero now we have a pledge from.
Mr.
Update.
That he's going to force more quantitative easing in Japan.
And that in my view is gonna unleash a huge depreciation of the yen.
From right now we're about 84 I think we're gonna head at around 115 and he said that's -- -- the biggest -- changes for next year the biggest because.
It will unleash -- a tremendous amount of liquidity not just from the BOJ.
But for investors in Japan.
That have yet to move out the Japanese market.
So they have sit -- on all this appreciation.
That if they put some of it into the US they can realize that in the third thing which is important there's a tremendous amount of liquidity coming from the special dividends.
In the fourth quarter there were brought forward from -- first quarter and the final thing that I think.
He gets a little bit happy for about the first quarter is the rebuilding after the hurricane.
Yet these are the number of factors that I think should overwhelm the noise of the fiscal cliff once we get through that -- -- it's an accident and also don't forget -- the debt ceiling issue is gonna come around in March a lot of instability.
Is -- -- full of full businesses who have so far resisted from capex and from hiring and expanding and kind conducting themselves in -- consider the normal environment.
But until they get to that point this economy's really gonna stop -- -- to continue to do what is doing trundle along.
Bumbling along with -- why do you why you more optimistic about where we're going.
We've no.
We've repaired if you will Greece for now you know -- now right.
So that -- we don't have to worry about and Europe at least probably to the second half of the year.
Three we've got stability.
In.
In China -- -- economic activity.
Home and that was a a drag and then we've got the the BOJ promising to east and now we've got the Federal Reserve during the same thing.
And all of sudden it's not the world looking over the cliff it's kind of three quarters of the world.
Looking the other way starting to come back and I think that's the big difference this year vs.
-- what happens you know we're basically stealing from Q2 are we always feel from 100 so we're stealing yes and you sit yourself Britain Europe might come back to bother us again second half of the year citi's that.
Could that mean then that we've been pretty -- OK first half second half could be disasters again.
But we never have a smooth sailing at anything so we always you know.
You sell -- May go way back kind of the average which work sometimes -- doesn't work what what we feel good about.
Is that investors are forced with a problem that dividend taxes are gonna go up right -- To me that's a -- problem -- Because it's gonna take investors out of the safety.
-- the blue chips and the Staples and utilities -- and put them into.
Faster growth sort of equities riskier assets riskier.
And if we look at the risk bucket of assets if you look at.
-- low quality Munis can just.
Wrap this around the head for a -- three to have percent yield -- pretax write three and a half percent yield.
Where should that actually -- in a normal environment that should be somewhere.
Probably 80% of the ten year treasury right as the host to.
Two types.
So that's and -- opportunity for investors in the last month.
Which I think.
Investors should look at and again these are things that retail and institutional investors should latch -- to -- and this is the RMBS market will not the MBS market for the aren't the the that private label mortgage market and where yields are somewhere around 6%.
Times wanna you know is coming can say is thank you -- -- -- we love the optimism that's for sure very.
