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Hey well some good news today for the housing market existing home sales jumped to three year high last month.
For our next -- just isn't convinced we're in a real housing recovery joining us now Josh Rosner managing director at Graham Fisher.
-- -- so you're not.
I -- that this is off to -- -- it's not up to the races it's off to a slow trot.
Protect you gotta remember housing prices are recovering starts are doing better foreclosures are declining in terms foreclosure starts completions rising.
You gotta remember home prices still so almost 17% below the 2007 peak.
We've got almost 20% of all sales have been cash purchases 27% of all sales and last year were investor properties.
There's still constraints on credit availability the securitization market is still shut down -- -- demographic problems ahead of us first time homebuyers saddled with over trillion dollars of student debt.
The baby boomers who historically were.
You know though the biggest part of consumption are moving to retirement often times stuck in homes that have negative equities I can't sell those who do.
The retirement community.
-- so we are recovering.
It's a slow recovery and it will remain a slow recovery we've got some balances and some of those balances are.
That we've had foreclosure moratoriums which -- kept inventories depressed.
We've got the banks which had been slow to build the Oreo the real state owned because of lack of foreclosures finally building those at some point those are gonna come to market.
And so right now there's an imbalance which is supporting a lack of properties and a good number of buyers at some point we're gonna start seeing that moderating.
Answer -- we throw in the whole FHA which you know drug that most of the loans these days are from Fannie and Freddie right.
SA today -- right mode hello terrific that the -- FHA right so you you have.
Between Fannie Freddie and FHA atop big you know trifecta of a -- that's -- and throw that into the mix.
Absolutely threw that into the mix you've got FHA who's underwriting standards have been abysmal right allowing 3% down payments which has resulted in.
Huge losses that are coming through the pipeline now.
You've got Fannie and Freddie which since they were -- conservative ship have tightened their underwriting standards so dramatically.
That they are not really approving a lot of borrowers and those are going to FHFA and again we don't have private markets in the administration's done little to nothing to address these well.
We kind of wanted a -- quickly before we go 2013.
Housing market flat at best now we're up GDP type levels GDP being you know one to 2%.
-- -- thank you very much thank you.
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