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Russell Investments Chief Market Strategist Steve Wood on the impact of the fiscal cliff on the market’s outlook for 2013.
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-- thanks Richard.
Thanks Ellen joining us now for more ironic cliff and -- impact on the market Steve let Russell investments chief market strategist.
-- we Dow that's up about 4%.
Over the course of the last month in the midst of all list -- what's the market saying.
I think the market is pricing in the fact that the fiscal -- doesn't give -- its full impact.
If you look at a lot of the funding liquidity known Libor yield spreads -- -- high frequency financial data.
And the markets there and saying that something's gonna get done piecemeal probably but something's gonna get them we're knocking at the full blast of the fiscal -- We've said before on here that does it matter what kind of deal it is I mean is it any deal because of bad deal could be -- -- deal sure and I think it's on the sequence right now.
There's the spending of the sequestration and as the taxes -- for most people are gonna come due April 2014 and lesser courtly pilot so they sequence and on the spending.
Then and if they do -- the taxes.
If they buy themselves time in that interim and if they can make a commitment to this grand bargain this long term a fiscal consolidation in other markets like that a lot.
And I -- I'm gonna give them a little bit of the benefit of the doubt this is the first time in America that we've had a meaningful -- stand to have dialogue.
On balancing the budget and getting our fiscal house in order so it's gonna be -- this first time.
But if we can make progress I I think it could be immaterial items under duress and and -- -- say right always that's right yes absolutely I think our.
Because politics historically has been about distributing prosperity.
Now it's become about distributing scarcity.
-- the bills are coming due in everybody's got to pick up their share the tab that's a different political dynamic and people haven't gotten elected.
On that premise and the begin to see some leadership in that.
And that the -- -- the market a little bit we're in you know get earnings season coming up -- feeling about what's and a kind of results were against where I think earnings are gonna flatten out.
So we know we're number chair arm maturing earning cycle our revenues are going to be challenged going -- 2013 so we're not necessarily bearish on earnings we just understand this going to be very long.
That he'd pick better stocks not all balance sheets are created equal and you're gonna need -- -- global thing you're gonna need to look in a multi asset diversified approach to kind of final stocks that are comparable.
-- better based on what's happening with dividends not that are you staying away from dividend stocks -- what it I don't think its source the tax treatment currently.
And the volatility that that it gives us Pozen -- dividend I didn't stocks is how expensive they've gotten and the run up -- been a very very crowded trade for a while now so even before the fiscal cliff conversations.
We are looking at them and not being -- -- because valuations ultimately matter.
And they've looked at attractive for awhile but you're looking at it -- target of fifteen -- sure it will work out what 1430.
Some 38 now on track how much does not much but it is positive.
So -- these targets noted that there there we're looking at where the direction is going to be the magnitude in the direction.
So from our perspective mid to high single digits on an economy that's stabilizing and improving given housing.
Fiscal -- doesn't -- bus is back but it's going to be volatile saw mid to high single digit seems like a reasonable magnitude direction for US equities -- 2013.
Glass half -- -- am so glad to hear.
And then we learned earlier hearing for a hearing -- -- -- I have not read halfway houses I have gotten AIG's it is like a lot of English at the end say.
Strange but true.
-- positive thinking people cheese heads -- -- really it's been.
