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Deutsche Bank Chief Global Economist Josh Feinman on the fiscal cliff negotiations’ impact on the economic outlook.
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Back to back gains putting -- Dow up more than 200 points for the week.
That's right this is -- Tuesday is this -- a little or excessive enthusiasm.
Is that a combination of easy money the Fed and and mr.
Obama and mr.
Boehner.
Well joining us now is Josh -- he's chief global economist for -- bank advisors great to have you with Russia the -- This is quite area are beginning to this week who do you think investors are getting overly invested in.
The negotiations in Washington maybe a little bit I mean there's certainly buying into the idea that a deal is near and not I think they're gonna reach a deal.
But the markets now are setting up for the possibility that there's if there's a glitch in the last minute negotiations there could be some disappointment in the markets.
What are they pricing in I'm just curious or are they pricing in.
Venerable taxes a you know may -- 500 billion.
Are they pricing and maximum spending cuts a 67 trillion and I don't think so -- certainly not I think they're what gives gives an investor such.
Such excitement here that they -- -- -- just start throwing money at stocks I think the excitement is just that there's an increasing chance that we're -- avoid going off a cliff.
And that would be such.
A potentially damaging factor for the economy.
That if we increase suggests that we're not gonna do that.
I think that -- people pretty excited but in terms of tackling the long term.
A budget problems now I don't think anybody is of the view that they wouldn't do that -- next few days so nobody is under the illusion.
That this is for real.
There were talking about substantive budget reform we're talking about.
Real honest but gosh debt reduction I think that the fiscal story is as it is a drama is gonna play out several acts.
Act one is hopefully -- tragedy.
Act one is -- certain we're gonna -- but ultimately hit but at one as a board the fiscal OK so I think that's increasingly looking like that's gonna happen.
Then we'll have a brief intermission and I think we'll come back for act two which is okay now we got to start thinking about.
Getting the budget -- long term sustainable basis and that means fundamental tax reform entitlement reform.
That's.
Going to be tough to -- let me let me be a bit of -- -- here.
And -- just a couple of possibilities that that won't be born market.
One has what are the fundamentals are really so good right now we've seen strong competence we've seen.
Strong manufacturing news we've seen strong retail we've seen strong housing.
I mean.
There's some good things happening in this economy there -- are there are absolutely I think that's another thing that the markets are focusing on is that okay we got this fiscal cliff notes that that's the immediate hurdle if we can avoid that.
Then -- you know there are signs -- as you point out that maybe the headwinds and holding this economy back are starting to -- And housing starting to -- a little bit and small the good news so if we avoid shooting ourselves in the well.
This fiscal cliff then maybe economic outlook can brighten.
-- -- one point 83 on the on the ten year.
It went what does that reflect.
I mean it it does it mean the Bernanke's plan is finally working.
Well I think.
Give my one point 83 is still pretty we'll hope.
It is up a little bit and but they wore it look at -- basis points from where we were that's true and I think part of that is -- you know some of that may be some of the green shoots in terms of the economic outlook.
And also that -- positive indicator by the way on the economy.
When economist Starr -- Green shoots automatically -- -- for that by about well I don't know about -- it is -- -- -- -- -- better than it's been looking a lot.
Just fine thanks for being here -- --
