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Is not more hope right now up for housing that recovery the national association of homebuilders -- of the latest survey showing home builder confidence.
Now -- highest level since April of 2006.
-- announced very Howard CEO the an age me and Jerry I have to -- on analysts were looking for that big fifty mark on the index to be broken through today and -- didn't what happen.
Well -- I gotta tell you just like everybody else I think our members are watch and by the fiscal cliff discussions and that the potential implications of up of the raising taxes on small businesses small businesses are 70% of -- of -- of the housing market so.
Just like everybody else was sort of hold our breath and that's why we're hovering just below 50% right now.
What do you remember saying -- about about the mortgage interest deduction mean that is certainly something that is on the table.
In the fiscal -- to such discussions are they -- that that's gonna hurt housing.
Yeah absolutely right now with this recovery in its early stages we're concerned about anything that would -- the market so.
Are raising taxes on small business.
Talking about the mortgage interest deduction all these things have our members while the signs are positive.
Just a little more cautious than we might have thought they would have been.
You know one of the things that was actually nice to CME -- you've got the three different components of the index but to the tree components are above that fifty mark.
Which is growth which is a positive sign for housing current sales expectations -- 51 how do you think the next six months -- ago that's also at fifty -- But what it comes to buyer traffic thirty sex so we're still not seeing meaningful traffic.
Coming in to these builders' show -- why.
Well I think that's indicative of the fact that job recovery has been.
But as job recovery is growing -- seen an increase there it's better than it has been but it's still not anywhere near where we'd like it to be it's not near the fifty mark yet.
If you're one of the things that we're doing as we get to the end of the year the trading here -- -- looking at a lot of the big commodity contracts couple things are very interesting for your members.
That is the lumber contract and -- of course is the copper contracts both of those.
Rising in particular when it comes to lumber prices really jumping a lot of those lumber manufacturers went out of business during the recession.
How concerned are builders about the cost of building these news hot new homes are they gonna pass that on to the consumer.
Well we're very concerned about increased material costs and you're right in the lumber side you're talking about an industry that has shut down a lot.
Their ability to produce is gonna take while for them to ramp up.
So there could be -- some supply shortages and therefore price increases in lumber.
The same with copper now the good news is is that some of the export problems we've had where some of our resources we're -- overseas.
Don't seem to be as troublesome as they have in the past so we're hopeful that they'll be a balancing out.
But justice hopeful that the lumber dealers and they and the timber -- will be able to get their business is back online as quickly spots.
I've got to go to the region's -- -- eloquent as I guess is not a big surprise here but still the midwest has leading when it comes to build our confidence in the northeast is dragging.
When it comes to -- -- confidence any new insight in regions for you right now for the month of December.
Just like always show the midwest is one that has been sort of -- a steady component all along that they were not.
As high as the rest of the regions during the housing bubble nor is -- during the recession.
Durham real determining factor for steadiness the northeast is still little slower it has to do with availability to -- to do with foreclosures.
And some of it I think is a reaction to hurricane sandy to.
That's interesting well it certainly have -- -- recently some worries me economy fiscal club notwithstanding.
This month Jerry Howard thank you very much happy holidays -- looking forward to the January number and hopefully get that fifty mark I think a lot people -- -- Policy in January sure sure I'm happy new year are you -- --
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