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OK to Go Over Fiscal Cliff if it Means Better Deal?

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    Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi on fiscal cliff negotiations.

  • Duration 5:04
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Still ahead in this the -- Zandi says standard Mark Zandi deal very economists who has the air and the respect to both parties.

Says it wouldn't be the end of the world lives were a little late on -- could ultimately prove a better deal on what we score.

May -- early part of next year Mark -- joining me right now.

What do you mean by that marked as everyone in this town has been television to a man or woman.

Boy oh boy.

I guess we've got to move but we're not -- and in the end here is comment and -- my guys you say sales on.

Well I don't hanging up on January 1 end if the treasury freezes withholding schedules and -- -- -- office of management budget tells.

Government agencies not teams are spending patterns because they think it deals and it.

And I think impact is relatively small to matter confidence but the impact will be -- for the small.

Until we get ended in mid -- late January so.

I think it's okay to go into next year if it means we get a more comprehensive that the deal a deal that needs to fiscal sustainability.

So we'll buy that I'd take it I don't know what words in your mouth mark that not a bad deal.

Who would be worse than that no deal if we Russ something -- -- you know what now.

Yes exactly you know -- I think we need to come up with an agreement that hasn't enough spending cuts and enough tax revenue.

That we can feel confident that.

Towards the end of the decade we have a debt to GDP ratio that's stable that would be fiscal sustainability.

-- the lettuce and balance then markets and we're often run up.

I'm sorry mark what is the balance that dealt with the ratio -- Because right now with -- even some of the tentative deals I've heard it's running three to one in favor of tax hikes.

To propose spending cuts because a lot of those are duplicating what was agreed to.

Earlier last year so I'm just wondering.

What -- -- ratio -- should be someone like you.

What's a good question sit in a lot depends on your arithmetic but I I think -- three trillion tenure deficit reduction.

And right now I'd say one point four trillion tax revenue.

One point six trillion in spending cuts I think it is appropriate to consider the one point one trillion spending cuts we've got as part of this.

Budget control act that's the deal we achieved at the end of the licensing and why should parents rights rights of that conference.

Yes the question you know I think we want to be consistent with Simpson Bowles and Simpson ball and then if you could do the accounting since Simpson Bowles which was the end of 2010.

That would include those BCA cuts and if you did that.

We get the spending to revenue ratio that would be very consistent with that plan.

And I think that plan is an appropriate when that was a -- Google for -- to -- Tom I took the number of folks that ratings agencies.

Including yours so over the -- you know you're separate houses there but.

Who say that -- a deal built more on tax hikes and spending cuts real spending cuts.

-- won't save your bacon and other words it could still lead to a potential downgrade.

About a bad deal to do it what what do you what do you think of yet.

Yet you know as you know -- not credit rating agency outside no inside information here but I really understood what -- -- say.

Yeah in my my sense of it is that if we gave the deal I just articulated three trillion.

In doubt that three trillion won for revenue once -- spending.

I think that would fit the criteria for AAA I I don't know for sure.

But I think that would fit so I think that's and that again very -- -- -- -- Simpson Bowles.

And I think that's their guide post at this point.

You know where is it -- market and this is talking to both parties over the last few weeks.

-- as stubborn now as they were in the beginning maybe for all the right reasons but I just talk to.

Democratic senator who says you know don't touch entitlements I've talked to some Republicans.

Don't touch defense.

In fact that don't even address Republican -- Tax rates we might be open to limiting deductions in the like it's so there's a lot off the table to each party and not much time to put something back on the table through either party.

Look at what would happen.

You have.

Did but that's what I would expect I mean this is negotiations -- really big questions -- a -- lots of people as they.

Yeah but I have worried sleazy tactic for questions are coming with a couple of days ago really did they get that they have to at least an outline of a deal to go through this Byzantine process.

To get one voted on.

Yeah and I and I think they will achieve a deal I think they're you know the president has to give up some more on not on the spending side and the Republicans have to give up.

Some more on the revenue side but I think they're kind of dancing around it enabled they will actually get it done before.

-- you know becomes a -- problem -- sign on the dotted line I think we're actually.

Pretty close so I -- I can't say with certainty in regard all of this but.

Not feeling pretty good about how things are going here -- not and I wouldn't expect any less than this brinkmanship that we're experiencing right now it's part of the process.

All right mark -- -- Iraq flu you wanna get a deal done Mark Zandi.

We'll see how it all works out of these right that something that it does happen -- -- -- dot.

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