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RBC Wealth Management Private Client Research Director Janet Engels on the factors that will boost the economy and markets in the year ahead.
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One certainly seems to be the norm in Washington these days on the second Groundhog Day you know every today.
Last year you had the debt ceiling debate congress had trouble putting together a deal now as we approach -- -- -- 2012 the US may be headed.
For the fiscal -- What does this mean for you and your investment yeah -- -- plant research RBC wealth management.
And she joins me on the Fox Business.
Exclusive Janet in the fiscal -- we have -- jobs report today for a brief moments we were worried about the fiscal -- for now we're back now we're back what do you make him.
So other couple things from the jobs report you've had some analysis we would conclude the same thing the jobs report was okay there is some signs of some very modest improvement overall -- job to guess the good news if you look at the jobs report we haven't really lost momentum.
And I'll put that in the victory column from the very short term perspective it's the fiscal cliff that's on everyone's mind so confidence as you pointed out.
Consumer sentiment is -- decline RBC has its own survey.
That suggested everyone seems to be focused.
On the fiscal cliff when you're focused on uncertainty what do you do.
You do nothing you sit on your hands and those are some major implications for the economy on a short term basis and perhaps the market.
In Ginnie I can I can hear the -- senior boys and a lot of our guests are coming on Fox Business is saying the same thing -- the uncertainty they're afraid of what Washington is going to do we not do.
And the same time your outlook for 2013 is -- a bit more.
A bullish.
That some of -- call eight get out what is sing in the second half of 2013 and others -- not so we're.
It up looking across the valley so on a very short term basis and we know that we noticed there a couple of things as the fiscal cliff fiscal -- fiscal clip we can't get out of the way of that.
But he if you look out to the second half of 2013.
And we can get some resolution we may not like the total resolution.
But if we can get -- the resolution you move past a period of uncertainty.
And we think beat three things have started.
In 2012.
That could accelerate in 2013.
Of housing.
Is -- housing which has done incredibly well but you're certainly and it's very important from an employment standpoint -- second aspect related to this is what's going on the energy field in terms of technology in terms of she'll play.
And energy less dependence for the US and the third factor is what's going on in manufacturing.
When you -- all together you can talk about the creation of jobs in the US economy.
If you can get the US economy past this muddle through environments you see a slight acceleration in the second half.
And guess what you see an acceleration in global growth modest but an acceleration global growth.
Do you think your last point is manufacturing manufacturing amount of jobs created today have been in the report is basically -- head downward revisions for September October.
From the airport so.
-- concerned about that sector on the message I'm not concerned about that sector I think we're looking at.
Manufacturing from the longer term perspective in the impact that it has on the US economy right now what a relatively small part of the US economy 12% of GDP.
But when you look at what the US dollars and -- manufacturing base as we manufacture eighteen point 2%.
Of all the manufactured goods in the world today that's bigger than Japan and this bigger than China it's a very significant number and quite frankly we do it better.
And we actually do -- less expensively.
You know the department energy releasing this huge report the study basically saying that it would be a good thing for this country if we begin to export.
Natural gas it would be good for the US economy some especially Washington say it would not be a good thing it's -- job killer -- use.
You know what -- if that's -- -- it.
It's hard for me to figure out on that I think be the key in terms of what's happening from an energy perspective.
And keeping those prices slow or absolutely benefiting the manufacturing sector will benefit the overall US economy.
I think we have to find a balance between exports and -- and the cheap fuel in the United States which is gonna cause that energy less -- nice to see some job creation -- be nice to see 2013 are Janet of course we're gonna have you back in just a little -- talk a little bit more -- cautious of some -- trip hasn't -- term yours coming up ten.
