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First Trust Advisors Chief Economist Brian Wesbury on why the economy’s growth is positive considering the negative factors weighing on it.
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The jobs report beating estimates that unemployment rate sliding to seven point 7% the lowest level in four years and the report showing signs of progress but what to the numbers really say about the state of the economy when 350000 people.
-- stop looking for work -- next guest says the bottom line is that the economy is growing but it's growing slowly and referring to economic growth moving.
Like a plow horse that's how he refers to -- first trust advisors chief economist Brian Wesbury joining us now Brian good to see -- -- we.
We've had this very -- I don't about whether the economy is growing fast obviously it's not growing fast enough for you or anybody else.
But the jobs number when you see a jobs number like this does -- give you any hope because -- -- is just more of the same.
That is it is more of the same but it that more of the same has been going -- for three and a half years now David it's.
It's a plow horse economy and just because -- growing slow doesn't mean it's about to fall over if you wanna really get into that analogy or metaphor.
Followers is have the pumpkin thick legs and -- they're they're they're not it's not gonna fall over it pulls through Klan yeah stumps and Roxanne.
And and clearly whatever growth over the Christmas less.
Yes -- back well yeah.
How about a fiscal curb it you know I added David think back I mean literally -- -- Dubai the BP oil spill there's tsunami nuclear meltdown debt downgrade debt ceiling to go to Greece Italy Spain.
-- -- -- -- re setting arms student loans I mean how many things.
Do we have to get fearful about before we start to believe.
-- in this economy and mean it's it's not booming I'm not saying it's it's perfect I'm not saying it's reaganesque 1980s again.
It's not but it's growing 2%.
Per year maybe 2.2 2.3.
And it keeps.
Growing it does we have not had a recession since march of 2009.
Right so -- mediocre and I think that's how most people with data consumer feels as we -- -- consumer confidence report today.
But if we think the consumer back and put them into the jobs report we did see the work week the number of hours increase as Steve wages -- what do you make of that does that give you hope.
Sure.
Yeah it does you know if you look at car sales in November automobile sales.
Fifteen and a half million vehicles were sold in November it's the highest since.
December 2007.
So -- weakness we saw in cars and auto auto sales and in October and in retail sales.
I think because of sandy.
If you're going to be over I think November and December going to be great months for the consumer I do have.
Hope by now I don't think we're gonna boom we're not gonna grow 4% but we do think -- grow between two and a half than 3% real growth.
Guy next year in 2013.
Fiscal cliff.
Even with the fiscal plan but doesn't -- doesn't there come a time because you and I perfectly agree on what it's gonna take to get the -- stronger because we were like -- it would back and you don't like a lot of the economic policies that.
That the president is proposing -- -- come a time when those economic policies.
Do stifle the economy do trip -- up.
-- -- Absolutely heavyweight when we look back in history.
You know the 1970s had a really big growth in government and when you have big spending like we do today.
You get weaker growth you know France for forty years has grown 2% real GDP and had 8% unemployment.
They think it's normal the good news is America doesn't think it's normal and David you.
You have to keep pounding the table that this isn't it normal it's not.
Good soda why.
And the only way to get back up to a good growth is to cut the size of the government.
I still believe that we have eight to ten years even on the crazy course we're on right now.
Before -- anything like one of these European countries that this is still an an amazingly.
Powerful entrepreneurial place.
And so I'm I'm betting on the entrepreneur and even though the government keeps making mistake after I like after mr.
I like the optimism -- I have to disagree with -- in terms of fourth quarter growth most economists say we're doing okay now you know third quarter we did at least.
But the -- -- close to see Santa Claus rally everybody spending money for the holidays.
The most console play that GDP he's gonna come down in the current quarter but you say can you up which I like I just don't know I don't -- you -- I don't think GDP I think GDP is going to be really weak in Q4 probably.
Under a half a percent I mean under a percent for sure.
We it could even be zero but that's mostly.
There's two factors going on one is sandy.
And I mean at one quarter of America's population literally didn't do anything for three or four days.
And and the second thing is the uncertainty of the election would help which held back business investment so.
Fourth quarter definitely will be weak but that next year I think two and a half to 3% growth.
Thank you first trust advisors chief economist Brian West Bank is one of the smartest people in America no doubt Brian thank you very much good to see -- -- --
