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Former Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee on the latest report from the Labor Department and state of unemployment.
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So early Austin but what a pleasure to have you with us bright and early on the -- -- -- -- -- -- -- job -- could not -- I'm saying that this is not a signal of real underlying economics -- Granted the right came down to 77.
But I think that's largely the result of 350000.
Dropping out of the world -- secondly.
A 146000.
New jobs in one month is not a signal of a robust economy what do you -- I somewhat agree with you I think the market this appears to me to be taking a little too much positive.
Note from -- 146000.
Being that much better than what they expected and the rate coming down.
And I think if you look at the revisions being negative.
This is a mildly positive report not a very positive reports it does have some weaknesses as you highlight though overall.
It's definitely not a negative I mean did.
Job creation.
From this survey of businesses.
Which is the more reliable job number.
Was some 50000 above what was expected so that's -- people have at least some positive for.
Let me throw this one action.
If you go back to December of 2007.
-- the labor participation.
Right the labor force participation -- them with 66%.
Even -- that 66%.
When -- we're now down to 636.
I believe it is 636.
Now.
If we now have a labor participation right a 66%.
We would have an unemployment rate of eleven point 1%.
That means and again maybe this is my opinion element of this is media column is looking at it.
If we have the same labour participation right then and and now as we do then.
We got double digit unemployment in other words -- implement has come down because people have dropped out that's it.
Well the.
Stewart who how much better when I look if I had the hair line that I had in December of 2007.
I mean -- you're you're forgetting the aging of the population that took place.
That people think -- -- for a bit over 50% of the drop in labor force participation.
Over that time I there's no question that of that -- -- -- -- -- -- -- coalition is the weak -- it -- and a -- -- the soft as part of the job market but -- They -- realize that went on on the left you that you guys on the left and I'm not saying you know leftist but I mean you were the author of part of the president's economic policy.
You -- saying that the policy as you put in place created this very modest recovery.
15060000.
New jobs a months aren't you assign the recovery.
Is that you you -- you're you're basically saying you you created the recovery.
I'm saying that you've done nothing to get about participation right up back way it should be.
No.
And and there I think years if we respectfully I think your little bit confused because as I say the labor force participation rate.
Was fully expected that over afford a five year period would fall it has fallen.
The labor force participation rate for example a prime aged males.
Has fallen under every single president since Franklin Roosevelt and that's because.
But after we get through a period.
Of slow population growth and that baby boom being born we've had an aging population for some time so I think that it.
The fact that there is a group of people who dropped out of the labor force and have not come back is the weakest part in the job market.
But the economy's added some three and a half 1000004 million jobs and that is a recovery.
It's not as fast as the Reagan recovery it's faster than the bush recovery and it's -- somewhere in there.
I I never thought I'd you know a good starting point clearly I was really -- I take your point but it is good stuff I never thought that -- -- it is not as fast as the Reagan recovered but you just said it.
It -- -- and I -- -- every time you know you're bringing it up I think that every dime that's one of the great recoveries in US history yes it helps if you can go straight and activate -- doing what you're doing the only section we had done in 2009.
What Ronald Reagan did in 1982.
But I'm out of time you know -- -- you know which is set the highest rated 50%.
No -- it is that's what I was well discoveries -- like it stimulate the private sector not all government all the time.
That's the story Austin I'm -- I'm really I'm sorry I'm up against the -- -- this -- always a fight at the Austin thank you so small bought.
