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Bell Curve Trading Chief Market Strategist Bill Strazzullo on the outlook for gold and how fiscal cliff concerns are impacting the markets.
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So we have these worries about the fiscal cliff they seem to be holding the markets or at least the psychology of a lot of investors hostage so once the dust finally settles.
What's BS and -- next move.
Joining us now when -- The S&P fell right I mean we're looking at a whole bunch of levels here -- -- those joining us he's the chief market strategist at bell curve trading good to see you.
-- -- -- -- -- Well look look I think.
Go ahead -- I was just gonna say you know it's not just the S&P but of course that's the broad indicator of of what a lot of people look at and invest in so.
How should they be viewing this on -- dated date basis.
The first thing you have to do lazy just be very disciplined without a really nice -- just mapping out I'll buy and sell levels not getting caught in between -- for instance right after the election we advise our clients.
We should get a good size -- move we've got him short at 1430 in the December S&P futures caught the move all the way down at thirteen fifty.
And then turned around and said look we should rally back to the 14100 area.
That's exactly what happened we didn't chase headlines we didn't try to catch every wiggle in the market and for the people watching the -- important thing to keep in mind now is.
We're getting close to the end of the year the market's gonna get increasingly thin and illiquid pile on top of that the headline risk not only coming out of Europe.
But also now with the fiscal cliff negotiations in the bottom line -- -- It's going to be very difficult to maneuver tight spaces so why -- out for us that means and -- S&P we want to buy thirteen 4813 twenty.
And as the market gets up to the fourteenth or the area above who want to reduce our equity exposure in the Dow call -- 125 -- thirteen five.
And then NASDAQ-100.
2400 to 2800.
-- -- -- -- -- hold on the S and because that's what we have -- just certain just to review here thirteen twenty to thirteen 45 AM when it hits there.
And then of course also this this it it this requires real involvement on behalf of the investor doesn't.
Well I -- the point the point is.
As we as as -- said you've got a lot of headline risk a lot of back and forth with the new stories.
The point here is the be disciplined.
Mapped those levels out and then don't get caught in between and so.
I think if you eat at thirteen 4813 -- a great place to add to your equity exposure.
And then as we get up to the fourteenth already -- above you want to reduce your equity exposure that was don't get caught in between.
Get to the NASDAQ now sorry intricate 'cause I just wanted to make sure people are following it got that New York -- going or is it boxed them.
A little bit evolved -- -- separate he went dark red left -- let's go to the NASDAQ.
On NASDAQ-100.
You know I think we want to play there on on the wide again 2400 to 2800 bit maybe 2850.
-- -- And I think you know qualify -- drinking five and the point is that over the next several months.
Liz I think it's gonna be trade its market until we gain more clarity not only on the fiscal cliff.
But also on what's going on in Europe.
And the state of the economy in China so I think the next several months are really gonna be much more from ratings game.
And that's what we're trying to lay out here for the viewers where the good places the -- the good places itself but -- -- making quite the call on gold for 2013.
How -- do you think this goes.
It's it is it's good question -- I mean I'm.
We basically started advising our clients around the middle of September it to -- gold -- what's interesting about that that was right around the time of the QE3 announcement occidental was just about all the good news was -- -- -- -- And everybody was caught on the same side of the boat.
We told our clients we want to get short seventeen -- -- 18100.
We caught the move all the way down to 1670.
And then -- I have a long position from 16767050.
What I wanna do right now is that wanna -- -- gold futures 1715.
To 1730.
I think it could catch another 8090 dollars on the downside somewhat out of 16401630.
And that may not be the end of it.
Do you believe that gold is going to -- possibly 14100.
Announce well.
Well I think put it this way was everybody's asking the question how high can goal goal especially after the QE3.
Announcement and I don't -- dispute the fact the bigger picture gold may go much higher but that's the wrong question right now.
The right question is in the short to intermediate term is how low can it go before it stabilizes.
And again -- -- -- from the 18100 area I think he got a good shot to get into the lower sixteen hundreds.
And I wouldn't be surprised if you you know you even push it all lower than that.
Well despite weak price action it's yours is a contrarian call because people still believe so much in gold select find that really fascinating quickly what do you like in equities financials he believes that these are the ones that are -- -- -- -- their heads.
Yeah I mean if we want to break it got to get -- is a little bit.
I like the financials crap like financials had a really strong quarter banks in particular probably of the best quarter on the last three years.
By the excel left I think go to 17401750.
There's another 10% upside look at the RTH retail.
I think can get another five or 7% on the upside -- -- a 4750.
48 dollars and then lastly the industrials excel I think there's another five to 7% upside -- played up the forty dollars bill.
Great to have you have a dinner party just invite you.
And Scott Black of Delphi can -- question I think think -- have a great weekend thank you so much good to see you.
Bill Stearns they'll likely you look at strategist at bell curve trading Dow Jones and.
