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Active Bear ETF Co-Manager Brad Lamensdorf and Janney Capital Markets’ Dan Wantrobski on what can boost investors’ portfolios in this market.
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Let's bring in our market panel got Brad -- store he is an active.
ETF cold manager.
And Dan what Trotsky his Janney capital markets technical research director guys.
Good to see you both so much to talk about today -- let me go to you first because.
You war bear in yen you've done pretty well at various times when -- market goes down but.
Back in April and I'm quoting here from a from this is from the globe and mail you said the market is very overbought but guess what.
Since April the market has been up and -- it's about exactly where was in April is it still overbought or -- -- wrong back -- So on market timing is a bit of a process nothing stays at a certain level forever we went.
Actually extremely positive in June after the correction when a lot of -- -- -- -- very oversold.
I was on the show actually in September.
Or October before the election was very bearish and called this correct correction that came with their election.
Currently in my newsletter on November 19.
-- positive on the market but I still think that next year's going to be.
Quiet any.
A rough year.
We say 20% haircut that's that's rough what would be the catalyst for that lower earnings.
Would be the primary culprit.
Simply that OK all right well let me get to -- -- you're cautious moving into 2013 but yet you're ready to put money to work.
What stocks what area should investors be looking at to dodge any kind of real danger in their portfolio.
Sure what you folks we're talking about apple you know earlier in the segment and that I think what's happening there what's happening in the broader consumer space.
What's been happening for the last several weeks.
Is a -- that's gonna move forward into 2013.
It's a theme we've been telling clients about -- -- rotation.
Away from the high flying consumer space.
And into some of the other sectors that have been lagging the market.
Not only for the last few months but the last 12 years so we're looking to take proceeds out of a lot of these consumer high flyers apple really isn't the only culprit here although I know it moves a large percentage of the market specifically assigned cyclicals home building and financials -- if you blinked you missed it but we briefly at a pretty traffic -- -- we can put it back up some people get a sense.
-- -- -- -- we are saying that and we think he's consumers proceeds for that.
These cyclicals financials.
Homebuilders.
Eventually we think technology.
These groups are unloved they've been under weighted they've been laggards in the space we think its usual -- -- gravitate towards those sectors.
To generate some -- and make -- we think the consumer space way too crowded at this point.
And then moving away from that raising funds funds from that's based paper added that -- a lot less work to do got -- Brad let's go back to this story today which is apple.
There are huge shifts going on a technology now of course is a big shift.
From PCs to mobile devices everybody seems to be getting -- that the once we're getting in late are losing.
Apple is losing market share most most recently with the tablets.
Perhaps with the iPhone as well we'll have to wait and see.
They're gonna be big -- and big losers as as regards this shift or these ships that are taking place in technology.
Do you separate out the winners and losers or do you think -- -- as a whole is bad -- right now.
No we take the S&P 15100 and we and Whittle it down to the worst 15150.
Names added that 15100 is apple among them.
Now so apple you would say is not a short even though it's taken a big hit correct.
What are you shorting outside of say for example technology some consumer names that you feel might not be appropriate for 2013.
I think that -- the the luxury space is extremely crowded we've been short Tiffany's -- short fossil.
We've been short cut you short Tiffany's before they have their earnings problem just a couple of days ago yes we we've been short the most you -- -- -- and if we can show -- -- one week -- two -- chart of -- could see how -- that was a -- -- -- you -- you know.
We.
We just -- our work there having a lot of margin compression going forward these are probably peak margins for them.
-- -- we started talking about financials with the coal.
Bank of America of course we saw this big bump by Citicorp unfortunately a lot of that is because they're cutting back in the workforce that doesn't -- for employment situation US.
But Bank of America.
Got a nice -- today you're you're big fan of Bank of America what do you see that the market may be just now is catching up with.
Absolutely again this goes back to a function of of sector rotation.
A lot of these large cap banking stocks they have been huge under performers for the last one -- two years.
And they are just starting to break out of these huge huge basis we still think the group as a whole.
Is is underweight -- so rent a stock like Bank of America breaking north of ten and I'm looking for a thirteen fourteen dollar target which on a percentage basis.
We've been excellent trade we like Citigroup as well there's there's a whole slew of of large cap names we like in that space -- Bank of America.
Clearly emerging as a -- here it's it's also it's also good to see the financial start to leave this -- In typical bull market structures you want -- leadership from the banks the financials also you want to sprinkle in some cyclicals industrials and.
And you you just don't like Citi even even after its big jump today almost 8%.
Absolutely look at -- -- it's fallen.
Talk about -- mean reversion trained on -- longer term basis I think there's plenty of upside there touch it Dan what Trotsky and Brad lamm is store gentlemen great to see a thank you very much -- -- -- --
