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Fiscal Cliff Deal Brewing?

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    Cumberland Advisors chairman David Kotok explains why he is optimistic on a fiscal cliff deal.

  • Duration 3:36
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-- -- So as we heard time is certainly running on the fiscal Clinton my next guest things behind all this posturing it deals actually growing so optimistic certainly today David -- -- Cumberland advisors chairman.

And chief investment officer.

Would think.

Is the key to getting a deal that -- and you actually think something is brewing.

I think something is brewing Melissa.

You heard McConnell.

Used the word -- revenue.

New.

Hadn't heard it from a -- years somebody welcome -- maybe he's gonna go to do you have there's wedding I don't know what we've got his attention.

Regulation but we elitists you all know revenue can mean a number of different things it'd be code for closing the loopholes in the tax -- eliminating.

Deductions and not actually raising the marginal rate -- -- as always that double -- in the details and I'm not sure anyone's getting closer.

To the double at this point.

What so we won't get close to the devil till December 31.

At 1159.

And we may even go over and then come back and bounce from the cliff.

That's what it takes it's our system it's a rotten system it's -- wonder we have so all this posturing Boehner and Geithner.

This is going to go on.

Yeah neither one will publicly give an inch until the deals made then they'll all praise themselves for being heroic.

That's that's probably true in the meantime though I mean the rest of us half -- trying protect our is that to make plans in.

I mean apparently these guys are have to get paid their bills -- you know worry about the credit card rate met you know the rest of us have to deal with all these things on a regular basis -- -- protect yourself.

As they're trying to well this problem.

Well I think the issue is this I have clients who say I don't know what to do let's get out of the market and -- -- If the client says I wanna do that I let him.

I don't argue with them because they're morons in Washington what -- I do.

But if they say what do you think I say look low interest rates economy recovering slowly housing coming back.

If you stay through this turmoil you're gonna have higher markets after it's over.

And may be much higher so my view is you stay invested broadly diversified we use ETFs do it.

But you and please let us have a higher markets on the other side may be much higher mean.

What makes you think that because you know as an investor or if I'm paying a higher tax and he's pretty straightforward straightforward map did you raise the tax on dividends and capital gains.

That it makes those stocks less valuable in the long run it makes them a less appetizing choice.

Why would I not -- eventually housing is on the way back if you have to hold assets for a long time.

When you buy housing buy gold something you can sit it.

Well but you gotta diversify and stocks are under owned one.

The the monetary policy is predictable.

For years.

And it's a low low interest rate.

So that all you say what are my relative choices I can go buy a high grade tax free bond get 3% interest.

I can buy stocks get a 2% plus dividend to make tax them higher but over time those dividends rise and I can get into a market.

Cheaply if I believe the earnings will grow over time say the rest of the decade.

That's my time horizon for me that works I'm gonna let the politicians knock themselves out -- they're all worthless what can I -- there.

Are all worthless and on that note to -- stock always a pleasure thanks for coming on.