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RJO Futures Senior Commodities Broker Kevin Craney, United Capital Financial Advisors CEO Joe Duran and Intrepid Capital Management President Mark Tra...
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Today's are sound joked around.
When there's this echo chamber out of Washington DC about the fiscal -- It's I think what you need to realize this regardless.
Of where they end up you know that there's going to be reduced spending you know that there's going to be higher taxes.
And so you get a lot of noise what I'm seeing that is very very bullish for us.
Is the fact that these holidays a lot of intra day swinging weak level week the market is holding up extremely well.
And so what everyone has already priced in frankly is that.
The government is gonna be keeping more of -- money and giving us fewer benefits but we have -- -- -- in the fact that real estate is definitely turned a corner.
And that is a much bigger driver of next year's growth.
And while they might be some uncertainty I think everyone believes that even if we go over the cliff.
They gonna get to resolution a couple of weeks after that and how to market might need to go down 500 points to get them to do something.
But they'll still do something -- -- Are -- -- my point that Roger and I think Joseph brings -- the point that affect the market is already priced tallest volatility.
Inside I'm I'm just wondering how far that pricing goes so for example.
Say because these demands from the White House were so extreme there was no spending cuts at all.
Except some vague promises about the future of Medicare in this this double lit the cost of tax increase -- wonder if they don't reach a conclusion.
And if they don't Ben Bernanke says we're in a recession has that been included in the price of the market.
They've announced the -- can be AME -- -- the -- closed today last -- -- fifteen but.
You know I obviously got proposals ridiculous I mean you're over the last seventy years you know on taxes -- percent of GDP about about.
183 and spending has been about twenty today we find ourselves with sixteen half percent of taxes as a GDP is revenue.
And spending is 24 and a half so.
I got last year we spent -- too much are -- raising two little -- -- so let me know push -- -- -- Denmark if in fact is that a -- stick to their guns -- the white house with their new demands and and the Republicans say no go.
And we go into real serious downturn.
What happens to the market army are we we look at at a at a 2009 situation here.
Well I'll be ready if we do day I think we as valuations sense of investors intrepid.
You know you gotta you gotta look over the last three years despite evolved so we've had -- the fat dumb and may of 2010 the debt downgrade in August of eleven.
You know -- and -- compound at last three years over eleven -- the Russell 2000 over fourteen right -- those satellite they're given away a lot of securities about it.
Those were all buying opportunities Kevin Cranium as you look as a trader.
You guys have these technicals in your head of what happened on a certain day four and a half years ago and the fact is those were all great opportunities.
If the market falls we you -- really seasoned traders jumping in here and should our viewership do the same.
I think -- does present a good buying opportunity because what -- what history has taught us.
Is that those of being great buying opportunities because of forces the government actually take a good.
Hard look at what needs to be done to make the economy and move forward I don't think any politician right now.
Wants to have -- on their watch to see this economy going to another recession.
-- to -- that from happening.
Both sides have to come together they have to reach a deal a lot of market's trying to price in some of that risk is some the other -- -- -- It's not I it's not impossible for this market sell off yeah.
Is if we continue to see all of this uncertainty but certainly I think if we get those key technical levels yes it's a buying opportunity for the the big investors and for the public as well -- The other hand again it's a question of where you by Joseph -- I was talking to trader in in London earlier today.
He was saying that what Europe has tried its -- France and and England and Spain -- raise taxes that hasn't created any kind of economic growth -- all they're worried that we're gonna do the same here.
So some people are looking to -- and say despite all the talk about how China's economy is slowing down.
There may be some interesting places to to put your money over there -- you -- I completely agree but I don't think you invest directly in China I think that there are some really great US companies that make most of their revenues in the rest -- for example and all of the growth for example Procter & Gamble.
All about tobacco companies we have brands like Starbucks -- the rest the world aspires to.
And -- these huge middle class is being created all over the world growing in double digits.
And -- companies have brands that I aspiration -- it is a generational investment shift.
That we've been huge proponents -- -- since -- -- looking up truck plants entire net worth we don't recommend any trading that you just be careful and cautious.
The you invest with -- to -- -- windows and there's no question that's a huge growth opportunity are many years to come yet mark.
What will you do would you feel prices are cheap or the market is cheap enough and what names will you be buying show us the money.
-- -- So in my life where I'm appetite good today plus payday about a lack -- today -- payday about a hour.
You know list I think -- Again is a bottom up valuations as -- investors.
And when southern reaches its full valuation were sellers.
You know the way we look at -- prices are low our cash levels are low when prices are high.
Cash -- to -- high so it's.
-- -- -- And you know will have readily available cash to put my put it to work at at attractive prices.
Two names today -- -- traded let you know five to six times.
Their cash flow to the enterprise value.
One name in this space that's been beat up over the course of this year is Paterson UT I ticker PT the shares are little under eighteen.
On an asset valuation are discounted cash flow we can get you to go load amid colonies.
Another another name it's really shocking statistic.
Company called big lots ticker BIG -- -- -- you can volume.
You can volume -- for 28 dollars let's it's a 1000000007 market cap.
But -- -- not since the start of 2010 they bought -- they bought back a billion dollars worth of shares.
So great questioner in of ability other 15100.
You know -- priced.
You know liquidation stores.
And down the type of thing that if we do go to recession.
People are gonna you know need and use that type store.
So.
You know we've got along grocery list -- capital we updated biweekly.
And the prices right you know be in the market but I'd like to see more volatility eyes and some disk disconnect.
We got to leave it that a wonderful overview of where we are and where we're going as we end this month -- trading month very important month mark Travis.
Joseph -- and Kevin -- we're gonna see as the CME closes.
A little later -- thank you guys appreciate it thanks.
