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KBW senior vice president of Washington research Brian Gardner gives his outlook for a deal on the fiscal cliff.
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You got major CEOs taking you see Brian storm meeting with the president Republican leadership -- -- -- struggle to get a fiscal clip deal done.
Joining us is Brian Gardner senior vice president of Washington research at TBW thanks much for joining us for the most of what you read from that -- bits that are sort of coming out how do you think it's going how close are we to deal do you think.
I think we're still at least three weeks away from -- DLI I think we'll get something before Christmas.
-- I look like the that the either Thursday to Friday to Saturday before Christmas and there's no deal before then.
And and it -- you look at the public statements -- you have to kind of digest them a little bit and filter them and and kind of figure out what's going on really behind the scenes.
And there there there have been talks going on behind the scenes I just don't think they've been all that as productive as as we like them to be just yet the the real negotiating its -- start to pick up now.
Yet -- and what points do you think that they're talking about now because to need from what's coming out of sounds like.
They're looking under every rock for more revenue I mean yesterday we -- hearing about may be a federal gas tax.
And they're talking about obviously raising taxes on you know anyone that makes more than 250000 dollars -- don't hear anything serious.
About cutting spending are entitlements are anything.
Now I mean I think the White House has been it thinks that they -- in a better place and they were a year and a half ago so they're staying away from the spending cuts for now.
I do think spending cuts will have to be part of the deal I I think.
-- if there if there are no real spending cuts that we're gonna go off the fiscal -- I don't think Republicans are gonna take a deal without spending.
Really don't think so because one -- when you know one of the things you keep hearing is.
Well maybe we'll just raise taxes now on folks and then we'll make a promise down the road to get back together in six months or so.
And talk about entitlement cuts or spending cuts somewhere down the road.
Now would be that would be frustrating to a lot of Republicans -- you think they would take that deal.
Yet because I think they they also understand that that their chances of winning tonight's lottery or better than getting those cuts stand in the future -- -- if they don't get an agreement on -- cuts right now that's firm.
And -- -- -- -- how you get something specific right.
Now on cuts not just we're gonna sit down -- we're gonna cut you know -- a number.
And it turns out like this where it's another physical click type situation we're gonna have is exploding deadline and they have baby number but no specific since then in my mind it it ends up not happening that it.
They they can take a framework but the more that it leans toward a framework and not real numbers and the last tax increases they're gonna there's going to be it is going to be a tipping point someplace if you if you get a deal.
Hello you know one thing -- that no one mentions in -- the president kind of glossed over this morning.
-- taxes going -- no matter -- on people making over 250000 dollars thanks to -- -- -- there -- surcharges on passive and earned income.
That are -- on the table tax rates or going up regardless of what happens in this debate over the next couple weeks you're absolutely right about that frank -- thanks so much for coming on.
Thank you Melissa.
So it is now being called one.
