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Lazard Capital Research Analyst Jennifer Davis on the retailers likely to get the biggest boost in sales leading up to the holidays.
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-- well even though retail sales were down last month our next guest says we will see an improvement.
In a holiday season sales this year joining us now Jennifer Davis -- -- -- capital senior reach not analysts.
With more sales expectations in the retail sector for Black Friday and throughout the holiday season different really surprised actually that we -- Fiscal cliff university Michigan consumer sentiment survey comes in less than expected and you still are looking for 45% increase in sales.
Yeah people uncommon shop around holidays and around kind of event so.
You know we'll see a slowdown like -- -- I think between Black Friday ends.
The couple weeks before Christmas but people really do come out and shop around bargains and shop when they need to.
Well let's get specific get -- Jennifer and talk first of all about GAAP.
Place whereby a lot of my clothes and had a very nice turn red haired couple years ago people were declaring it dead.
But it had a nice turnaround how did that happen.
The new merchandise new merchants in there and new merchandise they think that they kind of lost track of who their customer was.
And what their customer want wins haircuts are besides me I.
They know I say it.
-- and the average Americans -- consumer around us you know average all American and styles so.
You know the people like color optimism and gap has that again.
He also like Limited Brands we just heard learns immunity in Hamas thinks she saw lots of Victoria's Secret bags.
But what really interests me in the -- is Signet Jewelers they -- Kay and Jared.
People are part of a lot of my -- -- -- this.
Well today is.
And so much say a jewelry shopping day I mean that is a little bit but it's really gonna be that couple of weeks leading up to Christmas that some.
I'll be the -- -- most important weeks for Jewelers but yet that as one of my top picks for for the holiday season.
Okay we talked about who's up let's talk a little bit about who's down and Saks Fifth Avenue about doing too well why.
Well -- Saks Fifth Avenue has been hurt by a hurricane sandy -- storm sandy.
About 40% of their store -- -- in the northeast so they felt a greater impact from that.
There's also probably a little bit.
And in that aspiration all high end consumers probably being a little bit more cautious so.
You know their sales came in last quarter a little bit lighter than expected.
And think that that trend is kind of continuing into this quarter you also think -- -- going to be big loser I mean they've kind of an Elizabeth for awhile now have a ten.
Yeah.
Yeah I had declining -- a liaison officer and I say hey this subject.
-- and they've been.
They aren't they you know what they're a little more promotional this year -- -- today they were 60% off where they are 60% off all day long.
-- last year they -- 60% off until 1 PM and then went to 50% off.
And really worth the and we have been in the mall since midnight -- you know as they went through Arab post well.
You know it was -- was crowded but that conversion and the people actually buying merchandise was lower there -- that some of that other teen stores so.
You know their performance doesn't appear to be doing as well as some of the other side.
The way let me just give you kudos Jennifer you have been in the -- -- they've been an -- since midnight.
-- yes okay.
Do you -- this is a woman who has not slept ladies and -- -- -- that -- -- -- deserves extra credit for being here with -- We have an extra weekend -- -- between Thanksgiving and Christmas is is that going to be a big boost for retailers.
Yeah that should actually probably be maybe a three to 4% -- for September sales.
So -- it's definitely it's most important shopping weekend of the year in and you have the -- leading up to Christmas service are very important and and we have an extra one this year so people who do.
You know procrastinated.
Or decided -- I should buy a gift for this person or this person that wasn't some analysts say you know gives people an extra time.
-- you go find something -- goddamn thing that's all the men in the Jewelers by the way.
But you all need for a hundred.
You had to go to K -- -- -- ego but at the same time he's still say that Black Friday the most important day for retailers interesting because I think.
Some -- get better deals and get closer to the holidays.
Yet definitely you can get firm but a lot of retailers you can get better deals different -- is.
-- -- so -- just on Black Friday you know there's obviously some door busters that are great deals but overall you can get better deals on different days.
I think Black Friday has turned in some more of this and an event like like we saw at midnight -- -- -- the miles are crazy.
Jennifer I can tell from your sniffles and from the glazing your ride it is time for you -- go to sleep you haven't been -- for.
A lot outside that -- this is -- you can go home now.
Thank you Jennifer banks Jennifer Davis did the -- -- work in coming here to stay.
