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Chris Harmer of the Institute for the Study of War on the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the possibility of a war breaking out.
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So -- harbor is a senior naval analyst at the institute for the study of war recently wrote in an analysis of Israel's iron -- their missile defense shield of course.
He is also a former US navy helicopter pilot he trained extensively.
With the Israeli navy while operating in the Mediterranean Chris welcome back to the show.
Let's get right to have -- here expert opinion.
Do you think awards and -- hair.
I'm elicits it's a pleasure to be with -- again thank you for having me no I don't think war is imminent I think what we have right here.
It's what I would describe as a medium or high intensity.
Tactical conflict until the Israelis.
Cross the border with ground forces into -- we haven't really stepped up into full war the other thing to keep in mind is this sort of low intensity.
Low intensity conflict between Israel and Hamas has been going on for the better part of six years it's only been.
Within the past week or two that it's exploded into this level of violence so why.
Think it's exploding now I mean is it -- sort of a change in the neighborhood we've been talking about this a little bit that.
You -- neighbors have become even more hostile to Israel.
John you seeing Egypt with that Muslim Brotherhood in their ties for potential ties to Hamas.
It just seems like Turkey I mean their words have been so inflammatory against Israel it seems like all of a sudden.
They're finding themselves more alone than ever is that I do agree with -- Yes absolutely unfortunate there's two problems that Israel is facing the first is the increase -- Islamist influence in both Turkey and Egypt.
Historically Israel and Turkey and had a fairly decent.
Working relationship between their militaries unfortunately.
A lot of the changes in domestic political structure in Turkey.
Have favored the rise of islamists to power there so the Turkish military is no longer cooperating as closely.
With the Israel as they once were.
At the same time we've seen the rights of president more seat of power and he -- and that does not bode well for the future of Egyptian Israeli.
Relations in the last -- to make.
In your introduction you said it's always about the money I think the best way to view this conflict.
Is a new front of an economic front opened by the Iranians against the Israelis are raining its manufacture rockets for about a thousand dollars a -- Because -- ratings anywhere from 250000.
Dollars to shoot these rockets down.
So the Iranians are under pressure from the yes -- sanctions against them.
They -- applying pressure against Israel by supplying.
Massive quantities of low cost rockets to Hamas and has.
-- that's.
Really interesting point so how does that play out from -- -- what's the logical extension who runs out of money.
First -- the logical extension is it's really bad news for Israel 5060 years ago the Israelis could fight in the same manner that there enemies fought.
You know Israel started out 1948 as a very poor agrarian based Steve and they were essentially fighting guerrilla warfare against the Arab armies.
-- the -- 6070 years the Israeli defense forces the IDF.
They have embraced technology advantages and now they have a qualitative advantage.
Against all of their foes but as you know it takes a lot of money to maintain a qualitative advantage technologically.
The Israelis are gonna lose that advantage if they have to spend a hundred times as much money.
To shoot down a single rocket as it costs -- -- to make that rocket.
-- -- knows that they have long term better strategic situation in Israel here and I think the these secondary analysis here of the deeper analysis -- -- this is a ran providing low cost weapons to Israel's enemies.
And those enemies are using it to play economic pressured Israel.
That it's such an interesting point I haven't heard anyone say that in all of the discussions that we've had on these networks.
About what's going on in the Middle East let me ask you about the iron dome as well because that is something that you know so much about.
You know there are reports that it failed to prevent one rocket from hitting the ground.
What what do you think about that I mean is that is it just one rocket.
Or does that indicate a larger weakness.
Us by any statistical analysis iron dome has been an overwhelming success we're seeing at least -- 90% success rate.
Probably closer to 95%.
Success rate.
That iron dome is shooting down in down rockets out of Gaza now know system's going to be a 100% effective but I think your viewers can understand.
The technological complexity required.
To shoot -- rocket with a missile it's like shooting a -- with a bullet deep technology requires intense.
And the Israelis have perfected it so the Israelis paid for the development of the iron dome system -- sell themselves.
America has been paying for the production of the iron dome systems.
There's another problem here economically which is we don't know exactly how many iron dome interceptors Israel has in their supply system.
But the Hamas and -- -- Felices.
Money might informal assessment based on open source reporting was -- at about thirteen hundred maybe thirteen 150 interceptors to start.
They shut -- the least 400 in this past week.
They seen a drop of 25 to 30% of their supply now the problem is.
Hamas had at least 101000 rockets and -- of the start Hezbollah has anywhere from forty to 60000 rockets in Syria in its southern Lebanon.
Iron dome is qualitatively superior to anything to Hamas or Hezbollah has unfortunate we.
Right it can only he has the quality of -- -- yes.
Chris thanks you so much for coming not mean that is all really fascinating important information I haven't heard anywhere -- I hope you'll come back soon.
Absolutely think you having illicit -- now for the fuel gauge report crude oil futures falling almost three plus.
Chapter two section climb the drop comes as hopes first.
