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Joseph Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group senior analyst, weighs in on the holiday retail winners and losers he is predicting for this season.
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You for your portfolio on Black Friday the biggest shopping day of the year.
Or actually night at this point having somebody it ever going to be opening at 1201 -- AM in out with some summer opening a lot earlier than -- nearly a 115 million shoppers are expected to hit the stores this weekend.
But where will they spend big and wants the hot stores are pinpointed should you spend on their stock split down the holiday retail -- -- a list is Joseph Feldman tells C -- group.
Managing director and senior research analyst it's a Fox Business exclusive okay.
The National Retail Federation says holiday sales will be up about four point 1% year over year.
And that online sales will be up more than 12% year over year what are your numbers are they like that to that -- -- but those.
Yeah absolutely tell -- advisor group we're looking for three and a half to foreign -- half percent increase in total.
And about it yeah and low to mid teens on the online spending.
Who will do well who will pull our money out of our wallets extract those all important dollars.
So I think we're gonna see that big job box discounters do well Wal-Mart target I think those guys are gonna do very very well this season they're sorry and open early going to be open wal mart's open and a targets open at nine.
It's a share gain for them.
They're gonna go after shares when nobody else is open they're gonna go after that again we're talking about Thanksgiving Day 8 PM -- that's correct yes.
And it then they'll be open -- -- and through the night until the next morning and they'll have time to release of different sales it's going to be a lot of big events.
But if they can drive in their traffic in the stores for that low value deep value discounted down merchandise that they have it's going to be a big win for these guys -- So you're expecting that the door buster itself might be 8 PM on Thanksgiving Day.
-- once people get and they'll be hooked in and wait for times.
Sales so every couple of hours and now we have that flat screen TV that's 30% off.
That's right so for example Wal-Mart.
Has actually put in their electronics on sale at 10 PM.
Even though the door the door buster electronics attend can even on the stores are gonna open at eight -- POK so you'll have some nice sun.
Time to release sales there in if you're -- from ten to eleven you're guaranteed to get a few those hot door buster items and you'll have time to kill and you'll spend on other things up how to conduct their research joke.
We're -- -- -- -- we're going to be in the source tells advisor group will have its whole team out there on -- 8 PM I'm not Thursday evening and then the next morning.
I'm not gonna ask -- applications -- it's sort of like the New York Times food critics you never you never true -- you -- telegraphed that you're going places but will you be in other stores other than say the big box retailer oh absolutely will be across.
All of retail whether it's.
You know from Best Buy to GAAP to limited to -- taking notes and walking through and look at what we do are we do about is does say you know use our hand held devices take a lot of notes and and we put -- a big report on on the following Monday really talking element.
But looking at names like Costco.
Do you like those names because we've than we've been studying how the grocery effect he has really pull people -- Wal-Mart -- is that going to push them into the winter category and the margins as well does that make them a good stock play.
Yeah we we like Costco a lot actually and I think -- there -- its consistency has been terrific they've had 4% traffic gains all year and we don't see that something.
You know they have offer great value -- -- more affluent consumer.
And and that more affluent consumer like everybody else wants to save some money so they're in time -- Tosca is now we go to the ones that will not benefit as well yes what do you think.
Well you know the office supply guys for example there's not a lot of interest you know generator on Black Friday they're big seasons back to school back to business which happens in January.
So we're now looking for a time out of those guys.
Even home improvement retailers -- you really think about it this spring as their Christmas so there's not a huge drive to go into the -- -- hitting a big high today and we've seen Home Depot hitting absolutely numerous -- over the past couple months that's right from a stock perspective Home -- -- two of our favorites.
We think that there's gonna keep winning.
If you think about the housing market's been getting little bit better even today existing home sales are better.
And they pay you know big dividends they buy back a lot of stock there's a lot of good reasons to home owned home -- bonds she.
-- -- -- -- C advisory group -- managing director of senior analyst research thank you so very much thanks for having really appreciate it.
Closing bell ringing in exactly fifteen minutes yes we -- holding -- these gains about a 168 point still lots of green on the screen with the S&P 500 up 23 points.
Find out what the floor traders know the inside scoop from John Park -- that's next.
