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Kathy Grannis from the 'National Retail Federation' previews this year's holiday spending trends
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Welcome back okay guess what two thirds of us out there are going to be doing at 5:23.
PM on Thanksgiving Thursday.
I'm not joking that's when you're gonna without your Smartphone or tablet and start chopping.
EBay did a survey and they it stated that is the time that two thirds of people sitting and we don't want their dinners it's going to be like the post high shopping day.
And we're actually -- start shopping at five commentary.
Seems really early to me tapping granite is joining us now from Washington hey -- ABS senior director of media relations at -- National Retail Federation.
A company we talk about every day in this holiday shopping season thank you so much -- know you're busy and -- time to come in today so we appreciate that.
Absolutely our right sell what do you make of this Black Friday -- crouching on.
Black Thursday Thanksgiving Day trend we're seeing this year especially.
We actually know from researching from hearing from our members.
You'll hear from their shoppers that.
They love shopping on Thanksgiving night.
Not only do they you know still benefit from the great deals that retailers are offering but they get to sleep in on Friday.
You know of course setting that alarm -- a lot different than putting down the pumpkin pie -- heading out the door.
Okay.
So you don't people have to be asking you.
The retailers are killing name's Kim -- isn't one holiday saint grade what do you say that.
It certainly retailers pay attention to see you you know their workers and shoppers traditions and and they -- never completely go way it is very important a lot of people -- retailers are involving with their customers and that means that they.
Our opening on Thanksgiving because they know that there are millions of people do will be in line and who want this deals.
Yeah I that's understandable.
But -- can also make the point let's say Toys 'R' Us is opening at 8 o'clock.
I'm mountain on on Thursday so here at 9101112.
-- wait for more hours -- just open at midnight.
On Black Friday or 5 AM lake not now Home Depot does -- and they just wait.
Lake get a couple more hours and just give everyone their holiday you know is -- gonna be happy to the jumped.
And I asked us.
Shorter great question we know that last year 24%.
Of holiday shoppers.
We're at stores by midnight that owns.
Right -- for those who actually did open before midnight last year there are fewer at 10 PM there were 24% of holiday shoppers who -- -- by midnight sale because have been shopping at ten or waiting to getting at midnight.
So with that in mind many retailers took that -- to consideration and decided to open a little bit early to open can't offer that convenience for -- shoppers.
-- okay and I guess Thanksgiving shopping is going to be as ingrained as football is right now we're gonna pull off a full screen right now I know you can't see -- but what is shows is that.
In 2005 Black Friday Friday only shopping was nearly twenty billion dollars that went up a little for the next couple years.
And 2009 it was 41 million.
2010 -- was 45000002011.
It was 52 billion what's the prediction for this Black Friday 2012.
We have seen record Black Friday weekend in their every everything that's -- here that there's no question.
We don't unfortunately have a prediction for this year yet but I can tell you just talking to our members and knowing exactly way.
You know is going on in in -- retailers' minds they are expecting a pretty big -- and now that Thanksgiving is a part of that weekend.
We could see what we read -- hear me even more.
And what about for the entire holiday shopping season what's the expectation now.
Overall holiday sales will grow to about 586.
Billion dollars that's about four point 1% -- -- Then last year's holiday season so expectations for a pretty good holiday season overall.
But it's not now last year grew more than 5% I believe it was five point 6% growth so it's going to be a slowdown and now it's all this fiscal cliff talk everybody nine -- needed more.
Can you -- S perhaps missing -- 4% growth.
You're here right last year's growth was actually five point 6% so we are expecting a little bit slower rate of growth.
By -- at the end of the day given all of the political and economic uncertainty and does still exist.
Were optimistic that consumers will come out and want to spend and maybe still remain conservative in their budgets of course.
By you know at the end of the day four point 1% growth is not anything to shake a stick GAAP.
Yet and we hope we get it real we surpassed it so how are people gonna pay for all their shopping.
Well and you know.
Then the last the years have really train shoppers to spend with what they have and there's no question that this year.
Is this same kind of attitude.
More people this year will spend with their debit card digging out of there.
You know they're checking in their savings come and refraining from that credit card and that's something that we've seen.
A lot of people really pay attention to just specifically in the last few years.
A monetary Euro curve while you might end and the answer this but do you know off hand any any.
Surveys or numbers that show what we spend cash we spend less than if we just put it on credit.
I -- you bet nice curve ball -- I don't I don't know that out yet but we are you know that cash is that's okay we -- you know they cash is still very important to shoppers and and of course cash is another great way for people to stay in their budget.
Yeah and we're actually seeing so many more companies offering a lay -- plans and then offering MP free an earlier than they did in years past.
Do you see that really helping to boost the the holiday dollars that we do spend.
Absolutely -- has really becomes something that shoppers love it it doesn't test.
You know help spread out -- spending you know from that from the the only sign of things he keeps kids from snooping through this holiday gifts throughout -- scenes and mom and dad can shock when their paychecks let them when their savings let them.
-- for retailers.
You know it's actually awaiting get new customers into their stores so it's really a win win for those who offer the program and for shoppers to do want to spread out they're shot they're spending.
And what about cute aren't how popular.
-- gift cards are so popular this year more than 80% of people well by at least one gift card and that's the most in our surveys ten year history.
And we also know that 60% of people say they would like to everything even gets tired so again another win win for shoppers and -- I'm -- for gift givers and receivers.
Yet and I have to do is add something to those numbers I believe them because we did -- as.
A report recently showing that women from their loved ones.
Would rather unique gift card than anything else -- from your significant other has -- like really I mean where's the thought behind that but then I just would joke and say well I guess that's better than having to return targets they have like -- right.
There's that anything gift -- really can be practical if you think about the fact that maybe it's a down payment towards that that necklace that you want it.
Right good way to put it.
Our -- come -- you wanna know several Monday how could we forget okay.
So I guess that's gonna still exist even though you know we're gonna start and I mean I got Black Friday deals already today from from DV.
They sent me emails -- up early Black Friday starts early.
They say Cyber Monday gonna get diluted with.
Ages everything coming up sooner.
These days that's it.
That's a great question.
You know -- -- Black Friday Cyber Monday is the one today.
That online retailers need to pull out all the tricks you know.
Like Black Friday again you know it it's not going away might be different but -- -- I think shoppers are in for a great treat in terms of what to expect on Cyber Monday.
Thank you so much for making time friends today -- know you guys -- so busy at the and I are at your website on our screen.
Cathy -- senior director media relations National Retail Federation enjoy your weekend there in DC and happy shopping you and everybody else.
