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Haverford Trust chief investment officer Hank Smith responds to weak economic data and the markets.
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A case of a moron stock's recent slide in what if anything could stop that let's bring in Hank Smith chief investment officer haven't heard trust.
-- thanks for hanging now and wait and I'm glad we got this in you know the -- meant that mentioned jobless claims.
Philly Fed was out this morning what bothered -- the most of economic data we got that.
Well look our I think the economic data is all it explanatory it's our hurricane sandy and we knew this was gonna happen.
We also knew that Europe is in a recession so that early morning report was no surprise.
I think this has everything to do with the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff and whether this lame duck congress.
Will bridge the fiscal cliff into the 2013.
Or whether in fact we fall over the cliff.
And if we fall over the cliff or if the market senses we are.
We're gonna be looking at -- levels a lot lower than today.
Interesting though because even if we follow off the cliff you know in the in the esoteric sense -- bit -- still retro -- active.
Everything back to GN one and then it's almost like we don't follow.
Well that that's true and the economic impact in that case would be limited.
But look today's vigilantes resided in the equity markets not in the bond markets.
And the equity markets much like they did in the fall of 2008 when the first TARP vote failed.
They will I'll respond violently.
If congress does not bridge this fiscal -- So let me ask you this our senior editor Charlie Brady Eaton noted that since president Obama's election last week the Dow is shed about 600 -- five points.
Actually -- -- now six -- -- we've seen you don't think that is because of the election you think this is more because of the upcoming fiscal collect.
That is correct in fact.
We were on record as saying even -- -- Romney won the market would sell off because 100%.
Of the focus would turn to the fiscal cliff.
And the huge uncertainty.
That that -- portends.
If it's not dealt with.
Does doesn't it create a buying opportunity -- I mean if they're gonna like bring this down to the midnight hour which you know they're gonna do.
This market could potentially fall a lot further then a lot of stuff is on sale.
You are you are absolutely correct.
Because as soon as the fiscal cliff is.
Resolved if you will or avoided you would see a snap back you'd see a very dramatic rally on the upside.
Quickly -- I know your big fans of what the Fed has done.
You think infusing more money into the market has the right answer for us.
Well I think what we need is better fiscal policy.
That -- will allow the Fed.
The chance to take its foot off of the accelerator.
And hopefully we have -- comprehensive tax reform combined with entitlement reform.
You -- the sofa called a grand compromise.
The Fed can begin doing that in 2013.
Or fourteen.
Wow it will wrap that up with a big vote put -- end of the jury if that happens tanks and it had suffered stress thanks again for sticking around.
