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-- -- and we wanna bring him at the very people we're gonna talk about that new markets reference other hughes' sunamerica fund's regional VP.
And -- Reiner is mariner wealth advisors CIO Rick Heather because of mark brought it up you do.
Have a feeling of cautiousness about you and yet you believe that the S&P could very well hit what's -- target 1530 that's 10% higher from here what would get us there.
Parity yes hi Liz hi David march certainly -- bull horns on today hi it's like time and that's up 406 PM -- up what happens are running Bob listen day that I heard you said it wasn't attributable to President Obama coming out today.
And the one point six trillion digestion of the tax hikes.
However we have been waiting for some sort of pull back investors are like.
That they like to buy on dips and post election it's kind of healthy to digest some news here take a pause.
Look every woman knows how to wait for a good sale right -- we know how to shop Bloomingdale's Nordstrom Neiman Marcus.
All have their semi annual and -- friends and family last week and trust me I stopped out.
Yeah I always buying full price of an idiot sorry about the worst person compared Wilson.
Bill let's -- said that even though perhaps the day it was down more because the Fed the president.
Nobody wants taxes to go up nobody wants to pay more taxes made with the exception Warren Buffett.
What is the chances though.
Of a recession of really going into a down slide if in fact taxes do go up because present was big today -- saying -- small businesses would be that affected.
Was still to be a million businesses in this country that would be affected.
-- -- that tax rate.
Very much so and I think what we're carrying about a 30% probability the economy falls into recession sometime in the next twelve months.
But this -- perspective since the end of World War II if you look at -- monthly over the last what sixty years the US has been a recession 17% of the time.
So using -- -- band shall -- benchmark for your baseline if you will as far as recession probability.
We believe with what's going on -- the cliff and so on all the uncertainty in just -- low altitude the economy's been flying that.
The last two or three years leads us to believe the numbers closer to 30%.
And I think that number's probably moving upwards in people's minds and a day in and day out basis as we get closer to the cliff.
Heather so if that we have faith that our leaders hopefully will come up with a solution because they wanna get reelected -- -- they don't wanna see this kind of problem face our people.
What don't you think that now is a better time than later to get -- because this market -- -- -- moon shot and by then it might be too late and you're trying to catch a rising.
Star here which is a little bit harder than catching a falling knife perhaps.
Yeah you're right -- I do believe that there will be a resolution.
On the fiscal cliff before Christmas.
And what we need to focus on is that -- get used to be seen as an act of statesmanship.
To forge consensus across the -- And now to move the country for it it's seen now as a betrayal to your party but usually -- and now want to catch that well.
Investors are dollar cost averaging yes you you got it so I understand marks and we could move lower from here and that as possible.
But you can't really time these markets you don't know when -- come out gonna come out with this deal but as soon as they do the market should head higher from there.
All right we'll build the fact is is that if taxes do go up in people have to prepare for that.
They still want to invest despite that I mean they don't want to just hold on to cash it's losing money by inflation so.
You -- actually had people call you up and say look if my tax rate does go up if cap gains and dividend taxes go up.
How to why re prioritize my portfolio right now and and what are you tell this.
We have we have to receive those calls and and -- we're suggesting -- it in a world starved for growth really need to dig hard and look for growth.
Because the markets in general in a worldwide scale pay for growth.
We think growth in general over the next twelve months is going to be fairly solid in China -- not know that's going to be a controversial call.
But a lot of people but -- that these this is a country is going through an administrative change right now in more than likely at least the next six months they're not going to want to show.
Bad or a bad a growth numbers coming out of their economy.
And speaking of what what that means for clients -- looking at the idea of putting more money to work in the energy patch.
We believe China is on the margin more than one of the largest consumers of energy products are on -- worldwide scale.
-- that in mind we're looking at very very cheap oil stocks right now Apache being one of them the world -- advising clients to move money towards.
At the kind of pricing we're looking at today the stock and our minds is very bubble that stuff.
Thank you -- -- bill -- mark we're gonna check back in with you just a few minutes to see obvious and.