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iShares Global chief investment strategist Russ Koesterich on worries over the fiscal cliff weighing on the markets.
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The -- thank you Monica this met a big deal for the markets as well which is why we're talking about it if Monica's right there could be bad news.
-- stocks which have already had a a rough week -- you have SMP at this point putting out an estimate saying there's a 50%.
Chance the US goes over this cliff than.
That's been enough to shake up the markets if that's really what people or.
Estimating -- look at the Dow down big time last couple days but for rust ostrich and global chief investment strategist black -- IShares ETF business were up a little bit today -- but this whole idea of mixing politics and economics and markets and everything else you have to.
Try to put odds on this if you're an investor and -- -- -- you know are they gonna come up with a deal you think 15% is is about -- you think it's higher alarm that.
He I think this is the problem that you investors were you -- -- -- handicapping the economy.
Stocks margins it's very hard to second guess what and number of people Washington -- -- gonna do in my part of the challenge here.
Is live with this uncertainty out when we've spoken to people Washington.
What is come across is that.
Yes you'll eventually have a deal.
But the risks of going over the fiscal cliff are probably greater than the market has discounted I think that's what you've seen the selling this week -- -- Kind of interest -- that a lot of people got something wrong about the election this week because.
The money we had data about that -- -- we had odds that were at you at the minimum.
This is 60% or more and a lot of places that was more than the president be reelected but for some reason have been came in shock the day after the market sold off as of as if this is a big surprise that that the president was reelected so.
Yeah markets haven't done a great job even estimated -- when they have data and is this time it's morbid guessing game isn't.
I think -- is any -- excellent point -- the election was not surprised it was completely -- with the polls.
Where where we were or were expected be back in September you know this very volatile market reaction and I think the challenge going forward is still have to ask yourself.
Is all of this discounted and I'll give you one data point you look at expectations from Wall Street economists.
I still can't find a single economist.
That expects the economy to contract in Q1 now if you really believed right muted over the fiscal cliff.
They're probably gonna get a negative printing key -- so there's still a lot of disbelief out there.
When it -- better way to say this faith.
Right has this last minute compromise.
Yeah this of that meant they're -- even if you didn't he didn't say it's 1520% chance it.
It people's actions they're assuming they get it done and that is very interesting give us an investment Idec and -- -- exactly give us one investment idea how they're.
I'll give you want so one of the things or are more about right now he should be warned about is the economy obviously go over the fiscal cliff you raise the risk of recession.
One way to hopefully the hopefully insulate against that.
Is -- size bias larger companies -- mega cap companies which derive more of their earnings from overseas.
Hold up better when the domestic economy slows in small and mid cap companies don't want to think about your portfolio right now is a size bias.
OK fair enough that is good stuff today Ross is always some in this is gonna they're good week for data has been a good we.
It is just had a bad week for people acting on it that's it seems like but they cross paths thanks a lot good to see it.
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