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Wells Fargo chief portfolio strategist Brian Jacobsen weighs in on the markets and the possibility of the U.S. going over the fiscal cliff.
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Well we talked about -- the doubt today being down a little bit but nothing like yesterday when there was a huge hit after the election.
Traders are calling it an Obama the sell off.
But the thing is that the polls consistently showing the president will lead going up to the election why wasn't all that price didn't Brian Jacobson -- portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo we think Brian.
Well I think that it was partially priced in and that's one of the things it was basically a dead heat to going into the election and so.
Really want from a market participants perspective because I have to straddle offense in that case.
So it when it's a dead -- going and you should expect to be a little bit more volatility it once we actually get the results and I think that what we saw was voters going to the out.
Election booths on Tuesday and investors from voting on one's.
Right this kind of it to them -- a beat a dead horse to -- about a lot yesterday.
This didn't I don't know where the debt he comes from because an in an Electoral College the president was the favorite all long and is the president -- -- another national polls are close but.
The Electoral College had -- people looked at that in the all the analysis of at the polls so the president when he did.
So some people got hurt I would think in the market yesterday and in making the kind of the wrong bet.
What -- -- -- going forward on this fiscal cliff discussion that we're just having -- -- -- -- do you think.
Well with a -- -- I actually think that they will come to a deal but if they don't if they do not come to a deal.
I'm actually not all that optimistic for the direction of the markets -- the next two years so what I would say that watch the next two months to see whether or not they come to a deal because if they -- to come to any sort of compromise.
What does that tell us about their ability to compromise it next year it's not gonna change everything.
Pick up about two year comment that you just made but he me about that.
Sure well the reason why -- -- two years is because effectively if they don't come to a compromise on the fiscal cliff.
That could push the US economy into a technical recession in the first so the second quarter.
Of next year.
And I don't think that's gonna be very good for the reelection prospects of those individuals who -- -- held accountable or responsible for that so -- we have that mid mid term elections point 114 to look.
For you have to make that and you personally you do and other investors have to make a bet on what the likelihood of that is so we went in the said that.
The the odds -- that the president we get reelected somebody.
Some markets for 60% -- seventy you know that the Nate Silver thing was ninety plus of the rods and -- above fifty -- the president -- get reelected.
Are you putting the odds that the fiscal cliff.
Doesn't get solved that we fall off that above 50% -- -- think the odds are.
No I actually would put it at about 25% that we go off the fiscal cliff top ten day if we do go off the fiscal -- I think that would only be a partial -- partial fall so when the off the entire slow because -- different components to it still I -- one -- four -- -- -- pretty strong.
A chance that you think they won't get this figured out which is kind of interest and.
That's correct and that's one of the reasons why I think that it's so imperative for people to remember to diversify their portfolios and when wherever we are looking -- portfolio construction.
We wanna make sure that it -- a year not putting too much money at risk depending upon what the time horizon as and so.
Given my outlook for the next two months I think that people should be really considering looking at global opportunities because let's face it corporations have a lot of money on their balance -- they're gonna put it to work eventually the question is is where they gonna do -- are they gonna deployed here in the United States are they gonna do it somewhere else so you may as -- try to follow the money.
Something to talk about maybe next time -- on at a transition of power in China and all these other things -- Brian Jacobson -- stuff for investors from Wells Fargo thanks for joining us.
