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Former Bain Capital managing director Ed Conard weighs in on the election, fiscal cliff and the markets.
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Thank you now -- this.
You elected us to focus on your job's not -- In the coming weeks and months.
I am looking forward to reaching out and working with the leaders of both parties to meet the challenge as we can only solve together.
Reducing our deficit.
Reforming our tax code fixing our immigration system where -- -- from corn oil.
That of course was President Obama during his victory speech last night stressing the made for bipartisanship and -- and the months ahead.
A lot of people think about this fiscal cliff let's for an economy to former managing director -- Bain Capital and the author of unintended consequences.
-- -- A friend of Mitt Romney's -- the polls were right ahead in year.
Your friend loss last night on the markets down 300 points today what do you make of at all.
Other thing I think people should keep in mind is that the online -- vetting.
Predicted a 75% probability of an Obama win yeah so that means the real.
This only represents 25% of the remaining uncertainty that was left prior -- that would tibia election should have been priced in.
A three quarter than -- -- than five cents of this could be four times it's really four times bigger if you think about it in terms of three quarters -- that was already priced that.
Is this is a sell off in part do you think related she -- May be something not getting done on time for the fiscal clip that they're they're pricing -- Maybe a greater likelihood of a recession which everybody says that it's not just the presence vol is the president and congress -- together.
To do something about the automatic tax increases and spending cuts.
Like editing those -- problem but I think this is just they expect higher spending and as a result in the future higher taxes and so slower growth and less employment.
I think the market looks up pretty far in advance and they probably have already priced in the probability.
Will we will only go up fiscal -- Give us a quick take is we'll continue to talk about that but is that -- here and we talked about this in the past.
And you know Mitt Romney personally about what.
You think happened in the election.
I think -- couple things the first is I think that President Obama was very clever about running a spending up to 24% of GDP from an historical average of -- And then convincing enough voters at all we had to do is raise taxes on people earning over 250000.
And capital gains taxes and estate taxes.
And bring the whole thing back in the balance but that only raises a hundred billion dollars a year on a deficit that's one point one trillion dollars a year you can run maybe 200 billion a year.
And debt as a percent of GDP won't grow CNN 900 billion dollar gap to close they have a lot of work ahead of them here now.
But edit it didn't.
If the overarching concern was about government spending -- running at these high levels if it was about borrowing even more money and not may be a truly addressing.
-- national debt than when you see interest rates going out when you see the yield on the ten year rising.
And instead it's down -- one point 64% is falling today so it seems like this is surely an economic trade.
Yeah I think that has more to do where the rest of the world.
And -- -- capital flows in the rest of the world we'll go.
Back at you know we'll see in the long were aware of where this ends up but I don't think there is a shortage of risk averse capital in the world.
And so government guarantee debt there's a enormous surplus of risk averse capital.
Coming out of the financial crisis so as you look at -- today guy obviously -- that supported Romney former colleague of mr.
Romney but the -- lost and you look at it concede that the market's reacting as -- it.
Are you optimistic about the future the country are you worried what's your thought process well the thing about the silver lining them obviously disappointed but I do think.
This brings everybody back to the negotiating table and I do think that the Democrats are now gonna have to step up and lead on the process of how you bring -- 900 billion dollar gap.
In spending relative to tax revenues under control they're not gonna solve that by only taxing the people that -- over 250000.
Dollars and when people are confronted with the fact that we need 900 billion dollars -- a year of tax increases we only collect one point one trillion dollars a year.
In income taxes.
Whether -- spending levels that we have.
Pretend enormous increases in taxes -- and when people are confronted with that the president and the Democratic Party I'm gonna have to admit.
That there needs to be enormous spending cuts now maybe we don't cut the spending because we don't wanna go off the cliff but you have to hold the spending and let that they'll let the economy grow back.
To bring it down as a percentage we'll see Anton it is say a former colleague Mitt Romney's Bain Capital and -- good resource for us thanks for coming in today thanks for having his legacy it again.
