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Byron Wien, Blackstone Advisory Partners vice chairman, on why he believes President Obama will be re-elected and how that impacts your investments.
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-- -- is the vice chairman of Blackstone advisory partners he is joining us in a Fox Business exclusive of -- I'm thrilled to hear your.
Subject of a great sort of sense -- of what might happen here we will see wolf they -- I just the first question is.
What do you think is gonna happen here and then what does that mean to people's investments and money.
Well I think Obama's gonna wind.
You know that's way it looks I mean all I know I -- the same stuff you do.
I don't have any special insights but it looks like he's -- I think he'll probably take -- high no no van Wisconsin Iowa and New Hampshire.
And he's got 236.
Vote and electoral votes -- put him at 281.
Now -- the president is reelected he has set out out and out that he will not sign any tax bill.
That doesn't have a tax increase in these tax increases.
Are very significant doubling of the dividend taxes of more than doubling of the David you're talking about the absolutely officials.
The fiscal cliff -- look at.
We've -- -- focus on the outcome of the election.
Once the election is over nobody's going to be happier about that -- I am married I guess Obama and Romney will be you have here.
But -- -- number right number three.
And then -- we've got to focus on the fiscal cliff.
The fiscal cliff is 4%.
Nominal.
GDP.
And the nominal GDP is about 4% so if you pass all the things you go from an economy that's limping along to zero.
And that's -- So they won't pass the whole thing that they would but I I think Obama will pass the expiration of the bush tax cuts on those that make more than 250.
I think that's gonna happen and certain other parts them.
Probably one and a half percent of the four will happen.
And that'll reduce.
Nominal GDP from -- two and a half or down half real -- and what does that do Byron to the fourth quarter outlook.
Fourth quarter outlook is gonna be more affected by sandy -- it is by the election.
Interest and I think it'll be hurt by sandy.
But of the -- but the first quarter -- be helped by -- is people are rebuilding.
We're already seeing will say for example Cablevision today got hit on its stock because Cablevision says that with the houses lost they lost customers it will affect some.
Council's.
But he you know but I think Christmas going to be good you know I'm looking.
Forward to that.
Retailers have hired a lot of temporary employees they're looking for good Christmas cause consumers will be spending Christmas -- Consider for a moment the fact that that -- you're wrong at least in in your projection that Romney wins the election.
He is already spoken out about coal stocks that in fact that he would not sort of beat up on the -- started and other fossil fuels away right do you bottom -- has.
Is would that be a place I know you don't pick stocks but if you're looking at sectors would you focus on fossil well I think some of them.
And there's just a few calls fox and they don't amount to much in terms of total capitalization.
If -- -- reelected the defense stocks will do well.
And if Obama is elected they may not do that by energy in general -- mean all because again -- Chandler did better under Romney -- under Obama.
Let's look at those defense stocks -- you just mentioned you know there's a Raytheon has there isn't Northrop Grumman Lockheed Martin Boeing you -- fairly there as well.
Many of them are at or near their 52 week -- they've actually done pretty well over the past year under an Obama administration right.
Yeah they have because we do we are spending a lot of money on defense but Romney says will spend even more.
So so what's good and better yet.
Interest rates we have historic low interest rates some people say it's really hurting the seniors and others who work.
Of trying to avoid risk and and and vanguard are counting on interest rates murder provide -- with some kind of income is that gonna change over the next year.
Probably not the short term rates will probably stay low because economy won't be strong enough to drive -- -- to -- the Fed to change policy.
Long term rates will probably stay low too because economy won't be strong.
-- because there's a lot of fear capital around the world is still flowing into the visits is achievable again if if -- -- he's got this tax plan that would lower rates tremendously east try to get that two trillion that.
That corporations have -- the side reinvested.
Into the into their companies into the marketplace into the economy might that not -- -- ahead of the growth.
I don't think he has a magic wand I don't think he can make that happen corporations invest because they need to.
Because revenues are increasing and they need to build plant equipment to meet that demand but I don't think demand is gonna pick up enough to really cause that.
A lot of these are unknowns but.
How do you feel about investing in equities in the next year Byron do you feel the people she'll still should to have greater part of their portfolio.
Very bullish this year you know I had a big target this year it was a good call each did.
And I still think the market go higher between now and year -- But I think next -- is going to be a mutant thing you know more modest year I'm not negative I don't think we're gonna have bear market but I don't think it's gonna be anything like this you do switch your portfolio from stocks including well you know I'd still be and owner of equities but there are a lot of other things you can -- mortgages get pretty high rates on.
Mortgages leveraged loans mezzanine financing.
-- -- end -- the yield curve.
I think is attractive -- like gold the gold is gonna do well.
Because I think major countries of the world -- continue to debase their currencies.
I think the price of oil's going -- own.
So there -- ways take advantage of that in terms of companies that'll benefit from now.
Some other places to put money but you gotta be very -- -- Driver always great to have you here grades of beer have a have a good election night I love your -- do it -- would you forward it would.
