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Does Romney Have the Advantage in Ohio?

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    FNC contributor Karl Rove breaks down why Romney will likely win Ohio.

  • Duration 5:37
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Send little and the polls have been open for a few hours already and -- and rove has made his election predictions.

Here says mr.

-- thanks Romney will win the Electoral College with 285.

Votes compared to 253.

For President Obama.

Former deputy assistant to president George W.

Bush Fox News contributor here with this in studio mr.

-- thank you for coming in.

So my thanks for having me we -- -- on what prepare last night -- -- -- -- -- watched actually -- I -- yeah I was -- -- whole -- -- -- -- -- and yeah how do you know that -- not another day where we're actually messaging each other and so we were in sync with what we were learning from this threat last night and Gloria I remember that sell so Brett was in and -- -- Sotheby's all of us a few minutes ago and I said Timothy and the aggressive if Romney's gonna win one.

What do you think Ohio or Pennsylvania.

You obviously think Ohio tell us why well.

-- first full I think of -- -- -- is in play but it but it's a state that is sort of a last minute opportunity seized by Romney we'll see if it pays off groups and I'm associated with American crossroads to spend about two and a half million dollars in the last ten days to cover every media market except Philadelphia.

About it look Ohio you know just first of all -- it virtually every poll shows.

Romney winning the independence and allow -- -- if -- Republican presidential candidate and you -- independent should carry Ohio the second thing is the early vote.

You don't register by party in the state.

But but you are identified by what primaries -- participated in four years ago 340000.

More Democrats cast an early vote.

Then Republicans and the Republicans won the Election Day as they have every single presidential election since 1964.

And offset some at 340 and Obama won by 262000.

As of Saturday night.

A 155.

Fewer Democrats had voted in four years ago and a 1191000.

Nearly a 120000 more Republicans which offsets.

That that swing means that the Republicans are gonna go into Election Day a 105000.

Down resident -- -- the -- 340000.

Down.

And they're gonna -- Election Day I think wipe out that a 100000.

A Democrat margin in early voting and when the election.

-- the number -- and -- even more and talk about some of that critical counties to watch.

In the state of Ohio well the biggest one for the Democrats is going to be -- yoga and ended it traditionally you know that stated that they win that county last summer and they -- 68 point six.

To Republicans basically under thirty the Republicans have got to get above 30% of the vote in -- county.

Gotta get to about 333435%.

Of the vote.

To have a shot 224000.

Votes is what Republicans need to come out of coyote -- who lose and it but didn't of that number can further the Republicans the offset -- Hamilton which is not the it's its -- -- -- Cincinnati it anchors of big block of votes in the suburban counties Butler Warren and Claremont.

But Republicans if -- -- if they win the state -- Hamilton they lost the last time around.

And that's one to watch then watch a little ones.

-- a -- us which is a little county in the south.

East part of the state it's a -- generally a Democrat -- county it's -- -- county it is a Bellwether county park Pennsylvania.

Well no it killed him he'll be from over for Ohio public -- It's voted with the winner and virtually every modern Ohio presidential election and it's going to be interesting to see if if -- is gonna win.

This is accounting that he's likely to -- thought you master keeper of -- stuff which we do we know.

Tests I seriously -- also look for tell us cannot -- I mean I could well let's -- go without the well bore everybody knowledge as citizens want -- is kind of pop to the Madison so you're making your predictions even last night.

What's your degree of confidence in what you're predicting for this election for example that everybody -- talk about Nate Silver at the New York Times -- today says is a more than 90% chance Obama wins I don't know.

If you yet in a close election in a close election.

You can save more than 90% shaking up its more than fifty pursue all look like I look I do think he slept more than 50% of this totally unpredictable and collection is like until Brad last night.

Brett said no tossup states -- look -- her budget toss -- states.

But he said Wilson tells how you're gonna make a minute I noticed bread no prediction I had a better -- -- -- -- up let's look at corn because you know some of these states.

We're on the night said she ended and the idea you could say with a 90% plus certainty that one prison -- -- this of that election that is this close in this -- Is ridiculous particularly would your basing it on strictly poll data I think about this yesterday we had ABC Washington Post.

50% Obama.

And 47% Romney however it also had.

35% Democrats 29% Republicans 6% more Democrats and Republicans.

That that was.

Would just one point lesson was no way does anybody really think the political matrix is going to be.

Depressed Republican turn out an energized democratic turnout to give them that kind of advantage CNN Gallup I mean I -- CNN OCR.

4949.

Really eleven points more Democrat than Republican does anybody think the Democrat it is -- hasn't -- going to be more than.

Had -- almost twice what was last camera I don't think so so the idea that -- you could just look at those numbers.

And have no sense for the politics in under girdle and say with a 90% certainly that something's gonna happen is just the sort of laughable to me.

I well can't wait for tonight I can't it's going to be really interesting to watch these returns -- and that certain watch watch my home state of Virginia -- stereo and the what what what jurisdiction.

Q what county -- city Campbell.

There we go excellent southwest things.

How things could divide all night gala to slay me I -- ninth district right I love Sanmina thing thank -- -- correct.

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