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FOX News Digital Politics editor Chris Stirewalt and Juan Williams, on the latest polls and the handicapping the swing states.
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And Juan Williams I wanna turn to the issue these these battleground states because as I looked down here we were talking about new poll showing.
Romney up 5048.
A tie in Ohio with her most recent the university of since my poll shows.
Obama up 5045.
Again they can declare themselves -- -- close to call in Pennsylvania the SSO -- this for Tribune poll.
-- -- an attack so are we to dismiss those polls.
No what I'm saying -- you as you look over the length of time the campaign.
And you'd have to say that at this point you know that's an exception generally especially in Ohio pres Obama has had a lead.
I think that what's critical here is who turns out to vote who gets their people to the polls -- And in that regard is a big difference in potential -- but everybody.
Clearly has been -- you have reputable pollsters.
Who say you know actually been at this for some time and what we see is an Obama win.
Now look the Republicans.
Have outperformed pre election polls in every election but one since 1992.
Republicans do better on Election Day they turn on any given every poll but one in every election but -- in 1998 in a congressional mid term they underperformed.
But in every other election from 1992 -- 2010 they did better on Election Day than they did in the polls before.
What you see in the swing Staples Lou this is that this is the point.
If it's close.
You're talking about a half a point is the average under reform is -- average over performance are Republicans that have a point could flip not just Ohio.
But it could flipped several of these states in the difference for Romney here between a narrow victory -- a big win is pretty small.
Well I think a lot of what you're doing is speculative and I'm sure and but I'm just telling you look.
Right now what you're boiling down to and I'm gonna support your argument just for the fun of it.
President Obama I need that help you -- -- -- President Obama now needs a big turnout -- -- -- Ohio but across the nation from Hispanics blacks young people.
College educated women cities a lot of those folks who were so enthusiastic backing away are not so enthusiastic now so.
You say well possibly they don't turn out -- these poll models oh they must be deeply flawed but guess what the pollsters aren't that dumb.
And so what we're saying is well not all right -- the -- there's just have to be pretty much all wrong.
-- So let's let's take a look at a couple of things -- one -- Iowa.
The president polling tremendously there.
Now it looks like there is some movement we don't know how much but talking -- -- bring in our correspondent in Iowa -- -- that the bottom of the ticket there.
May well influence the top of the ticket because they have what they have a right to.
Equal rights amendment for -- for gays and that they wanna get rid of the wanna get rid of the justice settlement Supreme Court -- for election -- warrants and they wanna take the senate -- which is a 2326.
What right now one vacancy.
Shannon Bream says that the folks there think that they may carry this for Romney in Iowa because of the energy created by that yes.
And Iowa I like as a pretty good chance for Romney who flip -- blue I think it's not -- is best chance I think that's Colorado and Michigan.
But -- -- -- but Iowa because of the social issues social issues are huge driver in both parties.
In Iowa and this is part of getting evangelicals out that's gonna help Romney and other states but certainly and I.
Well I think again this is wishful thinking.
And it's all -- regularly because I'm not wishing even Lou Dobbs said here tonight.
Actually is what if this pretty strong right -- for President Obama in it but you know when you look at this they're all sorts of possibilities talk a moment ago about evangelicals that's a good point.
If they turn out in larger numbers it's all about -- and when you look at the that that the momentum in this thing what you see is though.
Our governor Ronnie -- momentum after that first debate that momentum has clearly -- I don't think the storm in your home state New Jersey and the governor's statement helped mr.
Romney in that regard.
So gonna have to look we're really I think something that would amount to a wave election for Republicans are -- out of nowhere all that's what we have I don't -- away and.
Gentlemen we're out of time thank you for the guidance on the council and we're all going to be watching that turn out very carefully and we'll be watching -- and here.
And we appreciate that and the other part of that is.
Thank you for noting in -- on the record the fact that a conceded that President Obama.
Would win at least one state yeah.
We don't think there everybody out there I'm mr.
dobbs mr.
rich dad he probably you very about.
-- talk to him about the back up.
