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Janney Chief Investment Strategist Mark Luschini and Raymond James director of equity trading Dan McMahon give their outlook for the markets after the...
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Well the election may be just one day away but some investors are -- that post election clarity on US leadership may not be enough to boost.
US markets dammit man Raymond James -- of equity trading.
Bush Cheney Ginnie chief investment strategist -- join me now Dan you're not -- and this post election rally thesis one.
I think that it will remove a little bit of uncertainty in markets normal like uncertainty obviously but in and of itself I don't know that it's gonna be have enough impacted to buoy the markets and take them higher.
All right -- you say the opposite is true.
Well I think that'll be the case if Mitt Romney actually wins I think the markets would -- view that is up.
Business friendly outcome and that you might see more compromise for dealing with.
The fiscal cliff which is going to be the next issue investors are going to be.
Faced with here coming in the next several months so on balance I think that's the -- the market would tilt but ultimately obviously the devil's in the details in terms of whether Mitt Romney then ultimately if he should win can carry through and complement by the expectation with the reality.
You know -- an assist schools of thought here from an investment perspective one school of thought as a that -- -- would be better for business better for the markets if he was elected.
Other school up those are gonna have to have an entire administration changed that's gonna be disrupted the business and we still have the same congress -- Basically -- When they'll be some lag time in terms of you know getting getting in getting programs in place and and getting his footing -- -- some you know it's -- it's a new job form so.
Nobody likes to be the new guy right I guess the question that the president so.
There is going to be that -- and that delay and see just tell how far he can count carry his you know bipartisanship.
Program.
But -- again as as a mark said the devil's in the details and we haven't gotten seen a lot of details about what the exact plan is and what how we're gonna deal with the fiscal cliff.
Mark what are you hearing amongst your college and colleagues at this point about how they're feeling about tomorrow's election especially for president I mean we're looking at different polls.
And they're all over the place immediately adversely is that he's some polls we look at say that the president's up by five points others say that Mitt Romney is up by five points or what are you -- The street.
I think there's suspicion is largely that President Obama will not.
Do suggest the President Obama might have a slight edge.
That said obviously from a market participants to -- I think there's a little nervousness of that coming through in yet at the same time there's enough evidence obviously suggesting that.
It's close enough that the markets -- willing to get ahead of itself today.
By not going one where another direction -- in anticipation of not knowing how this might ultimately play out.
You know Dan investors are nervous and that makes sense if you look at the volume that were saying today particular nobody wants to make any big moves.
Until we get a decision.
Anemic volume and you've got a lot of saw a lot of firms that have closed shut down their books for the year you're coming into the you know that the fourth quarter if you will of third quarter earnings and so that you know the headwinds created at.
The detail with created buyer earnings in the return to fundamental analysis associated with that you know -- kind of waned a little bit as the -- -- played out so now it's kind of hurry up and wait.
You know what are things coming going through -- in particular is -- yet our earnings reports obviously and while.
If you look at PS to be about 170% of companies already reported.
Think -- only 40% of those companies that we -- heard from.
The revenue estimate is heated up there's a time here with regards to the election and the down economy that revenue is just not performing -- -- should be.
I really do -- -- about 40% have -- on the revenue side that's below the average about 56%.
Over the last four quarters.
So I think it is playing in fact to the fact that we see CEOs from big companies -- small saying that there.
Deferring business investment in hiring in anticipation.
And -- to leave the enormous level of uncertainty that remains out there as to what 2013 is going to look like.
Given again the fiscal cliff or -- be perhaps moved into a fiscal slow but either way.
I think that's what's weighing on business activity and obviously.
As we move to -- and ultimately passed hopefully.
That uncertainty you might see an uptick of activity as a consequence and better top line revenue which I think could be a possible positive surprise for 2013.
All right -- on -- obviously we're gonna well a lot more we think tomorrow night but there could be days away Lou we shall see -- man mark wishy thank you very much gentlemen.
